Game 4 move 3 The Herd to play 5-2

[ah_clem]

We have a 5-2 to play from the bar

Position ID: 4NuFASTgc+QBUA
Match ID: 8ImqAAAAIAAA

[RickrInSF]

i voted bar/20 13/8 assuming it was meant to be bar/20 13/11

[diane]

Changed it to the above, because I wanted that too 

[ah_clem]

Well, I'm glad somebody's paying attention.  I've got a bunch of illegal moves in there.  Will fix...


... Ok, I think that does it.  I also added bar/20 24/22 in case anyone fancies that.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I don't think entering on the 20 is a good idea.  He'll have four(!) builders aimed at it, and won't hesitate to hit  loose.  16 rolls point on our head with this play.  The only way I could see entering on the 20 is if we had a tempo hit to be made somewhere else to take away half his roll.   I was all set to argue for bar/20 6/1*, but that's two fives, not 2-5, and hence illegal if an understandable mistake.

We need to hang back here, try to make an anchor and build a prime. Enter on the 23, and then either hit loose or bring one down from the midpoint (11/6 is just fugly). Of the hitting plays, I like 6/1* better as it unstacks the 6 and leaves the fewest shots - 8/3* strips the eight point without making a homeboard point, so that just seems a waste of a spare.

I'm going to go with yd. prosaic 13/8, but if either of the hitting plays starts attracting votes I'll probably shift over to that.  I really don't like entering on the 20.

[close]

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

I don't think we have much of a future entering on  the 2 point and further stacking. It's true he has a lot of pointing numbers if we enter on his 5 point, but those same numbers further trap us if we enter on his 2. If he hits us lose on the 5 point we have plenty of return shots and not much to fear from his 1 point board.

If we were to enter on his 2 point I think I'd hit him on our 3 point rather than stack, but I don't see much value there either.

The good news is, cuz of the score, that we can't get hurt much here. Mark me down for BAR - 20, 13-11.

[close]

Bob

[diane]

Well, I'm glad somebody's paying attention.

Somebody is pleased to to be noticed and appreciated 

[ah_clem]

Looks like there's consensus, so lets move along.


Rollout

Spoiler

The Herd's move comes out on top.  Others are not too far behind.




    1. Rollout          bar/20 13/11                 Eq.:  -0.182
       0.421 0.152 0.021 - 0.579 0.220 0.009 CL  -0.182 CF  -0.182
      [0.002 0.005 0.003 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    2. Rollout          bar/23 8/3*                  Eq.:  -0.203 ( -0.020)
       0.414 0.146 0.025 - 0.586 0.247 0.014 CL  -0.203 CF  -0.203
      [0.003 0.005 0.004 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    3. Rollout          bar/23 6/1*                  Eq.:  -0.218 ( -0.035)
       0.406 0.147 0.016 - 0.594 0.228 0.013 CL  -0.218 CF  -0.218
      [0.003 0.005 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    4. Rollout          bar/20 24/22                 Eq.:  -0.218 ( -0.035)
       0.404 0.137 0.018 - 0.596 0.236 0.010 CL  -0.218 CF  -0.218
      [0.003 0.005 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    5. Rollout          bar/23 13/8                  Eq.:  -0.238 ( -0.055)
       0.395 0.138 0.017 - 0.605 0.234 0.012 CL  -0.238 CF  -0.238
      [0.003 0.005 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 905458359 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

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