Game 4 move 5 The Herd to play 5-1

[ah_clem]

Z rolled a 5-3 and pointed on our head (nexted by me)  We have a 5-1 to play from the bar.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I'm going to go with the "safe" 13/8.   We may have a breather here and be able to make an anchor, so I'm not in a hurry to give him another blot to aim at - not necessarily because of the loss of ground in the race as because of the loss of a tempo when we're hit - I'd much rather use a one to anhchor than have to waste it on entering.  Although I won't be surprised if running to the 18 or hitting loose is the choice of gnubg.

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

I don't see it in your list, but I favor hitting him, 8-3. He's had this game his own way, let's give him a mild b#t#h-slap.

Bob

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I don't see it in your list, but I favor hitting him, 8-3. He's had this game his own way, let's give him a mild b#t#h-slap.

Ask and ye shall receive.

8/3* added.

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Running to the bar point is gnu's choice.  The Herd's choice is tied for second and a .04 error.  Others are fairly close too.  A tough decision.


    1. Rollout          bar/24 23/18                 Eq.:  -0.359
       0.338 0.101 0.012 - 0.662 0.357 0.010 CL  -0.359 CF  -0.359
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    2. Rollout          bar/24 8/3*                  Eq.:  -0.398 ( -0.040)
       0.328 0.089 0.015 - 0.672 0.397 0.025 CL  -0.398 CF  -0.398
      [0.003 0.004 0.002 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    3. Rollout          bar/24 13/8                  Eq.:  -0.398 ( -0.040)
       0.319 0.089 0.010 - 0.681 0.352 0.012 CL  -0.398 CF  -0.398
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    4. Rollout          bar/24 6/1*                  Eq.:  -0.408 ( -0.049)
       0.319 0.089 0.008 - 0.681 0.364 0.020 CL  -0.408 CF  -0.408
      [0.002 0.004 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
 
    5. Rollout          bar/24 11/6                  Eq.:  -0.477 ( -0.119)
       0.286 0.079 0.010 - 0.714 0.393 0.021 CL  -0.477 CF  -0.477
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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