Game 4 Move 16 The herd to play 6-4

[ah_clem]

We miss with a 6-4.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I don't think it matters a whole lot here as long as we don'd do anything too boneheaded.

I like moving the spare on the 24 out and then bearing in to exactly the 6 point.  24/18 10/6.  I'm sure there are other reasonable plays too.

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

IMHO it would be boneheaded to move as you suggest. We're either going to hit him later or get gammoned. In this kind of position when the opponent rates to gammon us if not hit, we don't play to get off the gammon, we play to build our board so we can contain him when he is hit.

My play, therefore, is 24 - 18, 8 - 4.  It's worth pointing out that if we had only 2 checkers in his board, instead of 3, my play would be to make our 4 point. Please include my play in the options and record my vote accordingly. Thx.

Bob

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[ah_clem]

Please include my play in the options and record my vote accordingly. Thx.

I've added your option, but I can't vote for you.  You'll have to do that part yourself.

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

play to build our board so we can contain him when he is hit.

I'd go along with that - 24/18, 8/4 seems good. 24/18, 13/9 might have been another candidate.

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[ah_clem]

It's 5-1 and I'm the odd man out, so I'm going to call it.  Rollout in progress...

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

gnubg 0-ply likes 24/18 13/9, but there are a couple of other plays within the margin of error, including the Herd's pick.  The "boneheaded" 24/18 10/6  is a .018 error.



    1. Rollout          24/18 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.982
       0.092 0.000 0.000 - 0.908 0.807 0.102 CL  -0.982 CF  -0.982
      [0.003 0.000 0.000 - 0.003 0.003 0.003 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    2. Rollout          24/18 8/4                    Eq.:  -0.985 ( -0.003)
       0.086 0.000 0.000 - 0.914 0.818 0.092 CL  -0.985 CF  -0.985
      [0.003 0.000 0.000 - 0.003 0.003 0.003 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    3. Rollout          24/14                        Eq.:  -0.989 ( -0.007)
       0.089 0.000 0.000 - 0.911 0.806 0.102 CL  -0.989 CF  -0.989
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.003 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    4. Rollout          24/20 24/18                  Eq.:  -0.997 ( -0.016)
       0.070 0.000 0.000 - 0.930 0.845 0.072 CL  -0.997 CF  -0.997
      [0.003 0.000 0.000 - 0.003 0.004 0.003 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    5. Rollout          24/18 10/6                   Eq.:  -1.000 ( -0.018)
       0.080 0.000 0.000 - 0.920 0.823 0.095 CL  -1.000 CF  -1.000
      [0.003 0.000 0.000 - 0.003 0.004 0.003 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    6. Rollout          24/18 11/7                   Eq.:  -1.002 ( -0.020)
       0.084 0.000 0.000 - 0.916 0.816 0.103 CL  -1.002 CF  -1.002
      [0.005 0.000 0.000 - 0.005 0.005 0.004 CL   0.012 CF   0.012]

    7. Rollout          24/20 13/7                   Eq.:  -1.009 ( -0.028)
       0.089 0.000 0.000 - 0.911 0.805 0.120 CL  -1.009 CF  -1.009
      [0.003 0.000 0.000 - 0.003 0.003 0.003 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    8. Rollout          24/18 6/2                    Eq.:  -1.011 ( -0.029)
       0.072 0.000 0.000 - 0.928 0.852 0.088 CL  -1.011 CF  -1.011
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.003 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    9. Rollout          24/18 5/1                    Eq.:  -1.027 ( -0.046)
       0.071 0.000 0.000 - 0.929 0.852 0.102 CL  -1.027 CF  -1.027
      [0.004 0.000 0.000 - 0.004 0.004 0.004 CL   0.011 CF   0.011]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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