Game 4 Move 17 The Herd to play 5-1

[ah_clem]

Z rolled a 5-3 and the play was forced.  We shake a 5-1.  

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The big question here is whether to hold the ace point or to run one of the checkers out of his homeboard. Our only chance to save gammon is to force him to leave a shot, but  by my count both plays force him to leave a shot with 20 shakes.  So the shot-creating aspects are not going to settle the question.

Being gammoned doesn't hurt us much a this score, but a backgammon does.  So I play the anti-backgammon play 24/18.  That gives us two chances to escape the last checker, unless he rolls doublets in which case we only have one.   It's those doublets that worry me - if we're still holding the ace after 33 44 55 or 66 we'll have to shake a 66 to save backgammon.  No thanks.

Run to the 18 point.

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