Game 5 move 0 The Herd to play 4-3

[ah_clem]

We win the opener with a 4-3.  

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The usual plays for an opening 4-3 are to bring two down from the midpoint or do a reverse split with 24/21 13/9 (D or Z in Nacktation).   The normal split (24/20 13/10 or S) is also playable but the rollouts have it a slight underdog.

D is unnecessarily aggressive at this score.  I'm guessing that the Herd will probably go with Z.

But I like 24/20 24/21 at this score.  We're just trying to win a single game and activating both runners helps accomplish this. We also have to be gammmon shy as a gammon loses the match. IIRC, some rollouts have shown this move is correct at gammon save.

[close]

[Zorba]

DOUBLE 

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

24/20-13/10

Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.  ~Ambrose Redmoon
PL

[close]

[ah_clem]

Rollout

Spoiler

All the vote-getting moves are very close.  gnubg 0-ply likes the reverse split, but the Herd's choice is within the margin of error.


One thing I don't understand about this rollout is the equity figure - how do we arrive at -.3 equity when our GWC is about 50%?  We won the opener so our equity should be slightly positive.  ANybody got an explanation?



    1. Rollout          24/21 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.292
       0.504 0.213 0.034 - 0.496 0.131 0.017 CL  -0.253 CF  -0.292
      [0.002 0.006 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    2. Rollout          24/21 24/20                  Eq.:  -0.302 ( -0.010)
       0.500 0.209 0.035 - 0.500 0.132 0.013 CL  -0.263 CF  -0.302
      [0.002 0.006 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    3. Rollout          24/20 13/10                  Eq.:  -0.307 ( -0.015)
       0.497 0.202 0.038 - 0.503 0.131 0.012 CL  -0.267 CF  -0.307
      [0.003 0.006 0.004 - 0.003 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.008]

    4. Rollout          13/10 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.313 ( -0.022)
       0.498 0.225 0.032 - 0.502 0.135 0.018 CL  -0.274 CF  -0.313
      [0.003 0.006 0.003 - 0.003 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    5. Rollout          13/6                         Eq.:  -0.391 ( -0.099)
       0.478 0.215 0.028 - 0.522 0.152 0.018 CL  -0.349 CF  -0.391
      [0.002 0.006 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[socksey]

Just as well, I didn't vote this one.  It would have tied it all up!   

socksey



"I've already told you: the only way to a woman's heart is along the path of torment. I know none other as sure." - French author Marquis de Sade born in 1740

[Zorba]

"One thing I don't understand about this rollout is the equity figure - how do we arrive at -.3 equity when our GWC is about 50%?  We won the opener so our equity should be slightly positive.  ANybody got an explanation?"

It is because the Herd's gammon win percentage is worth zero, whereas the gammon losses (assuming an upcoming double/take) count double. In other words, the Herd can only win one (useful) point, whereas I can win two or three useful points.