Game 5 Move 3 the Herd to play 6-2

[ah_clem]

Zorba danced with an ill timed 6-6.  We have a 6-2 to play.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

At this score I'm going to advocate playing it safe with 21/13.  Were gammons any good for us I'd play the more aggressive 13/7 13/10.  But here we're just trying to win a single point and avoid gammons; after this play we've escaped one of our runners and have a homeboard point while he's got three men back and no development.  I'll take that.

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

I'm outvoted already but, with time to think about it, seeing as he has one on the bar, I see sense in coming down to the 11-pt, then duping his 2s with a run to our 14-pt, so 13/11, 20/14. Not that I'd ever have considered this over the board - with a clock ticking (or an impatient fibster urging me on!), the running play would be the obvious move.

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[ah_clem]

With the vote standing at 6-1 I'm going to call it.  Rollout to come...

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

gnubg 0-ply likes the more aggressive play 20/14 13/11.  The Herd's choice is within the margin of error.



    1. Rollout          20/14 13/11                  Eq.:  +0.126
       0.642 0.357 0.096 - 0.358 0.079 0.006 CL  +0.126 CF  +0.126
      [0.004 0.008 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.001 CL   0.009 CF   0.009]

    2. Rollout          21/13                        Eq.:  +0.115 ( -0.011)
       0.639 0.321 0.064 - 0.361 0.081 0.011 CL  +0.115 CF  +0.115
      [0.003 0.007 0.004 - 0.003 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    3. Rollout          21/15 13/11                  Eq.:  +0.109 ( -0.016)
       0.636 0.337 0.077 - 0.364 0.081 0.007 CL  +0.109 CF  +0.109
      [0.004 0.007 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.001 CL   0.008 CF   0.008]

    4. Rollout          13/11 13/7                   Eq.:  +0.073 ( -0.053)
       0.617 0.341 0.089 - 0.383 0.080 0.015 CL  +0.073 CF  +0.073
      [0.004 0.007 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.002 CL   0.008 CF   0.008]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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