Game 5 move 4 The Herd to play 6-1

[ah_clem]

Z rolled a 5-4 and it was obvious to make the golden point.  We've got a 6-1 to play.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Seems to me that it's high time to make another point.  Playing it safe is one thing, but 7 checkers on the midpoint is a bit too "safe"  (actualy it's less safe since it's so inflexible.)  And I don't see the advantage in hitting looseon the ace point.   Make the bar point.

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

gnu 0-ply likes the running play over making the bar point, but it's within the margin of error.  I'm doing a 2-ply rollout and will post results when it's done.

    1. Rollout          20/13                        Eq.:  +0.103
       0.634 0.245 0.017 - 0.366 0.082 0.006 CL  +0.103 CF  +0.103
      [0.003 0.007 0.003 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    2. Rollout          13/7 8/7                     Eq.:  +0.094 ( -0.010)
       0.630 0.274 0.033 - 0.370 0.083 0.006 CL  +0.094 CF  +0.094
      [0.002 0.007 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    3. Rollout          13/6                         Eq.:  -0.047 ( -0.151)
       0.586 0.279 0.031 - 0.414 0.110 0.006 CL  -0.047 CF  -0.047
      [0.002 0.007 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    4. Rollout          8/1*                         Eq.:  -0.107 ( -0.211)
       0.561 0.231 0.019 - 0.439 0.114 0.010 CL  -0.107 CF  -0.107
      [0.002 0.007 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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[ah_clem]

2- ply rollout

Spoiler

2-ply rollout gives basically the same result.  Running is better, but our choice is within the margin of error.

On the previous roll  Z had a checker on the bar and the right move was the bold move but the Herd chose the safe one.  Now, with Z able to use both halves of his roll, the right move is the safe move, but the Herd chose the bolder move.  Neither are big errors, but there's a lesson here I reckon.


    1. Rollout          20/13                        Eq.:  +0.084
       0.629 0.222 0.018 - 0.371 0.087 0.008 CL  +0.084 CF  +0.084
      [0.002 0.008 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    2. Rollout          13/7 8/7                     Eq.:  +0.077 ( -0.006)
       0.626 0.260 0.039 - 0.374 0.087 0.006 CL  +0.077 CF  +0.077
      [0.002 0.008 0.004 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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