Game 2 - Herd to cube?

[diane]

It may be very early, but I didn't want to miss it..comments can also include whether I should keep asking..

[ah_clem]

My take is that it's better to ask than to miss a cube.  If it's a clear ND, he Herd will probably slap it down pretty quickly.  Anyway, this is certainly worth a vote.

Spoiler

The race is even, but we're ahead in position and threats.  Normally that's a double, but AtS I'm shy.  We won't get the full value of a gammon or single point win after a recube.  So I say hold it for a roll, despite the clear market losers. Not sure if this is correct...

[close]

[ah_clem]

With us rolling doubles the complexion of the game changes alot, so posting the rollout of this cube decision shouldn't affect our future decisions.


rollout

Spoiler

The first set of numbers is 2-ply evaluation with the score even at 0-0 to 5.  At that score it's a clear double.

But at the present score, it's not a double as 0-ply rollout confirms.  The takes are easy, but we knew that.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////
0-0 to 5

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity  +0.456 (Money:  +0.456)
  0.641 0.252 0.014 - 0.359 0.089 0.004
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.726
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.274)
3. No double            +0.681  ( -0.045)
Proper cube action: Double, take


////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

2-0 to 5
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity  +0.563 (Money:  +0.457)
  0.640 0.255 0.015 - 0.360 0.090 0.004
Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +0.587
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.413)
3. Double, take         +0.459  ( -0.128)
Proper cube action: No double, take (23.7%)

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.639 0.278 0.035 - 0.361 0.092 0.007 CL  +0.439 CF  +0.580
[0.002 0.004 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.015]
Player Skater owns 2-cube:
  0.638 0.308 0.055 - 0.362 0.091 0.011 CL  +0.928 CF  +0.406
[0.002 0.006 0.004 - 0.002 0.001 0.002 CL   0.015 CF   0.023]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 876515117 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]


1. No double            +0.580
2. Double, pass        +1.000  ( +0.420)
3. Double, take        +.406    ( -0.173)
Proper cube action: No double, take

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