Game 3, move 8: Herd 6-6

[diane]

4G1DBgzYDjJgNA:UQm7AAAAGAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Seems to me that the choice is whether we want to own the 7 and the 14 points (7-14) or own the 8 and the 13 points (8-13).

I like the solid four-prime of 7-14 better than a broken prime, and the 14 communicates slightly better with our stragglers than the 13.  The 14 also provides slightly more contact than the 13 and since we're still behind in the race, more contact should be better.  OTOH, the downside of 7-14 is that now these two points are not in communication.

I'm going to go with 20/14(2) 13/7(2), but the other move may be better.

BTW, 13/1(2) is also worth considering, but not for very long IMHO.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The two plays worth considering are within the margin of error.  Anything else is a double whopper.



    1. Rollout          20/14(2) 13/7(2)             Eq.:  -0.381
       0.432 0.206 0.036 - 0.568 0.166 0.011 CL  -0.381 CF  -0.381
      [0.003 0.005 0.004 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 CL   0.008 CF   0.008]

    2. Rollout          20/8(2)                      Eq.:  -0.398 ( -0.016)
       0.422 0.196 0.031 - 0.578 0.163 0.011 CL  -0.398 CF  -0.398
      [0.003 0.005 0.003 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 CL   0.008 CF   0.008]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 872552967 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]