Game 3, move 9: Herd 5-3

[diane]

sG1DAwzYbsAAWg:UYm1AAAAGAAA

file posted below for clem to have fun with  

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I hate to bury a checker on our ace point, but the other alternatives are worse.  Playing from the 7 breaks our blockade (and still buries a checker), and playing from the fourteen almost guarantees that we'll have 5 men stuck behind a 5-prime (any 2, 3, or 6 hits).  Given the strength of his blockade, I don't think recirculating checkers is wise.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Herd's choice comes out on top, but playing off the 7 is surprisingly within the margin of error.


    1. Rollout          bar/22 6/1                   Eq.:  -1.033
       0.213 0.065 0.007 - 0.787 0.307 0.023 CL  -1.033 CF  -1.033
      [0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL   0.010 CF   0.010]

    2. Rollout          bar/22 7/2                   Eq.:  -1.041 ( -0.008)
       0.221 0.076 0.008 - 0.779 0.321 0.027 CL  -1.041 CF  -1.041
      [0.003 0.004 0.002 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL   0.010 CF   0.010]

    3. Rollout          bar/22 14/9                  Eq.:  -1.149 ( -0.116)
       0.191 0.044 0.006 - 0.809 0.358 0.025 CL  -1.149 CF  -1.149
      [0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL   0.011 CF   0.011]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 872503493 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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