Game 3, move 11: Herd 4-3

[diane]

sNsWABaxbYEANQ:UYmxAAAAGAAA

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

We've failed to cover the chequer on our 8 point, which is now favourite to be hit.  So I'm thinking we should safety that man to the 4-point with the 4. What to do with the 3? Moving up from our ace point leaves a load of blots but if he fails to jump our prime we could be better off getting men to the front of his prime - but 24/21, 8/4 just looks way too mad, even for me.  So I'm going for the prosaic 8/1.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Yuck!


I don't want to dump a checker behind his runners and I don't want to give him four blots in his home board to point on.  Leaving the 8 slotted looks nice, but the slot won't do us any good if there's no checker to cover it.

That leaves 14/11 8/4 or 14/10 8/5 as the only remaining choices, neither of which is very appetizing.  Of the two I'll play to the 11 since it allows me slightly more chance to hit a leaper.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

A big swing and a miss for the Herd this time: nobody voted for the best move, and everything else is a whopper.

In retrospect, our best chance is to make an anchor on the 22 or 21 (or 2 anchors) and spreadin' 'em around in his homeboard is the best way to achieve it.  I'm not at all sure how to see this over the board.  Maybe a better player can enlighten...


    1. Rollout          24/21 8/4                    Eq.:  -0.933
       0.290 0.137 0.024 - 0.710 0.334 0.034 CL  -0.933 CF  -0.933
      [0.003 0.004 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.010 CF   0.010]

    2. Rollout          8/1                          Eq.:  -1.040 ( -0.108)
       0.214 0.090 0.007 - 0.786 0.314 0.023 CL  -1.040 CF  -1.040
      [0.003 0.004 0.001 - 0.003 0.004 0.001 CL   0.009 CF   0.009]

    3. Rollout          14/10 8/5                    Eq.:  -1.047 ( -0.114)
       0.214 0.081 0.007 - 0.786 0.316 0.025 CL  -1.047 CF  -1.047
      [0.003 0.004 0.001 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL   0.009 CF   0.009]

    4. Rollout          14/11 8/4                    Eq.:  -1.055 ( -0.123)
       0.210 0.071 0.009 - 0.790 0.319 0.023 CL  -1.055 CF  -1.055
      [0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.004 0.001 CL   0.009 CF   0.009]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 872972337 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

nobody voted for the best move, and everything else is a whopper.

[close]

I really, really hate it when I accidentally hit the wrong option...

[stog]

Spoiler

we are the Herd!

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