Game 3, move 20: Herd 6-6

[diane]

Position ID: nn0PAAC3HRgBMA
Match ID: UQm7AAAAGAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Big doubles.  Our choice is basically whether to move both runners out of his homeboard and take the single game loss, or to leave a checker behind and retain some winning chances in exchange for increased gammon chances.

After 24/6 13/7, we're seven transitions away from bearing off a checker (saving gammon) - he's got no checkers off, so the gammon chances seem small. with his poor containment he's not going to hit loose, so we probably won't wind up on the  bar.  OTOH, the chances of him leaving a shot are small too.

I'm going to opt to stay and fight with 24/6 13/7.  Maybe we can make another homeboard point and then get a shot.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Short version:  it doesn't matter very much what we do here.  We picked the best play according to gnu 0-ply, but the others are very close.



    1. Rollout          24/6 13/7                    Eq.:  -0.884
       0.087 0.000 0.000 - 0.913 0.041 0.001 CL  -0.884 CF  -0.884
      [0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]

    2. Rollout          24/6 24/18                   Eq.:  -0.893 ( -0.008)
       0.056 0.000 0.000 - 0.944 0.003 0.000 CL  -0.893 CF  -0.893
      [0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL   0.000 CF   0.000]

    3. Rollout          24/12(2)                     Eq.:  -0.895 ( -0.011)
       0.055 0.000 0.000 - 0.945 0.003 0.000 CL  -0.895 CF  -0.895
      [0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL   0.000 CF   0.000]

    4. Rollout          24/6 10/4                    Eq.:  -0.901 ( -0.017)
       0.081 0.000 0.000 - 0.919 0.045 0.001 CL  -0.901 CF  -0.901
      [0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]

    5. Rollout          24/12 13/7 10/4              Eq.:  -0.904 ( -0.020)
       0.081 0.000 0.000 - 0.919 0.048 0.001 CL  -0.904 CF  -0.904
      [0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]

    6. Rollout          24/12 10/4(2)                Eq.:  -0.929 ( -0.045)
       0.073 0.000 0.000 - 0.927 0.054 0.001 CL  -0.929 CF  -0.929
      [0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 873625579 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

[close]