Game 4, move 2: Herd take decision

[diane]

Position ID: 4HPhASKwZ/ABMA
Match ID: MBmgACAAGAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Our take point leading 2-away 3-away is 26%.  Do we win 26% here?  Seems like a slam dunk.

What about gammons?  We lose a few and they are costly, but I don't see this as being particularly gammonish.  Take.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Short answer:  double, massive take.

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.662
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.338)
3. No double            +0.615  ( -0.048)
Proper cube action: Double, take


Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.580 0.185 0.022 - 0.420 0.142 0.019 CL  +0.303 CF  +0.615
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]
Player The Herd owns 2-cube:
  0.581 0.190 0.035 - 0.419 0.156 0.027 CL  +0.662 CF  +0.662
[0.003 0.003 0.004 - 0.003 0.005 0.003 CL   0.019 CF   0.019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880235836 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]