Game 4, move 6: Herd 5-2

[diane]

Position ID: zN7AAQZkz8EABw
Match ID: UQm1ACAAGAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We're 15 pips behind in the race.  Playing behind his anchor is weak weak weak.  Ok, making the three would be a valuable asset, but there's nowhere to play the 2.

I say move the spare off the anchor - maybe we can use it to make a point in front of his anchor, but if it's hit we might be ale to enter on his ace or deuce point and give him fits as he tries to  bear in.

We're behind in the race.  We have to maintain contact.  Burying checkers behind his anchor is no way to win.

21/14

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

I am sort of with you here...maintaining contact has to be good...but feel that the spare checker on the 21 is the contact we need...and that points at home will help if we hit anything...wherever they are - a 3 point board, even if one is the ace point is better than a 2 point board.  I really am for keeping that spare to hit, but retain the anchor for another go...I know I dont speak backgammon...but does anyone else understand this?

[close]

[stog]

Spoiler

i am happy to change my vote to 21/14 but it is closed

[close]

[diane]

The poll is reopened, to try to break the tie...but please stog..dont change just because clem said so...lets see if clem wants to rethink 

[ah_clem]

I'm not changing my move, so if you're waiting for me you can stop.   (c:

[diane]

So, did we decide that if it is tied, and wont break....I can do what I want? 

[ah_clem]

It's your job to break the tie so do what's reasonable.  Flip a coin, decide based on who has made the better argument, decide based on the fact that you're the captain of the chouette, whatever.  As long as it's reasonable I doubt anybody will complain, and if they do they can facilitate match 9.  (c:

[skater]

I'm dying of old age here ;-)

[stog]

sry skater - thx for your patience --- interesting move choice we've got here though 

[diane]

Ok, we moved on...roll it big boy     

[ah_clem]

gnubg results

Spoiler

2-ply analysis has the two moves within the margin of error.  I've started a 2-ply rollout and it's saying the same thing.

A close one.



    1. Cubeful 2-ply    6/1 3/1                      Eq.:  -0.217
       0.440 0.085 0.001 - 0.560 0.106 0.002
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    21/14                        Eq.:  -0.225 ( -0.008)
       0.435 0.084 0.002 - 0.565 0.104 0.002
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    13/11 13/8                   Eq.:  -0.270 ( -0.053)
       0.408 0.082 0.002 - 0.592 0.094 0.002
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    4. Cubeful 2-ply    21/16 8/6                    Eq.:  -0.277 ( -0.059)
       0.417 0.080 0.002 - 0.583 0.120 0.003
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    5. Cubeful 2-ply    8/1                          Eq.:  -0.281 ( -0.064)
       0.411 0.095 0.002 - 0.589 0.111 0.003
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    6. Cubeful 2-ply    21/16 3/1                    Eq.:  -0.298 ( -0.081)
       0.405 0.085 0.002 - 0.595 0.117 0.002
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]

[ah_clem]

2-ply rollout

Spoiler

Making the one-point is best by the smallest of margins according to gnu 2-ply rollout.


    1. Rollout          6/1 3/1                      Eq.:  -0.218
       0.434 0.124 0.009 - 0.566 0.095 0.009 CL  -0.218 CF  -0.218
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.002 0.002 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    2. Rollout          21/14                        Eq.:  -0.224 ( -0.005)
       0.430 0.114 0.009 - 0.570 0.091 0.012 CL  -0.224 CF  -0.224
      [0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880132554 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]

[diane]

I wish I talked backgammon....