what's the best move?

[kerosene]

hi, relative newbie here. what's the best move here?
i actually played 5->3 twice and took 2 off ( please correct my move description  ) and next move with 54 had to leave 2 pieces open which luckily the bot missed. I think I was combining the "take pieces off the board when you can" and the "try to leave even numbers of pieces on points" tips I'd seen on the net. Now I'm thinking moving all the 5s to the 3 would have been a safer move as I was not in a race.  

ker sene

[dorbel]

What you haven't done is give us the score, but I don't think it matters, except to say if it was for example the first game of a five point match, this is double and pass. Playing on for a gammon here is reasonable but probably a small error.
So, what's the best play for this great roll? If it's a one point match, then 5/3(4) is a good play as all you are trying to do is win the game, gammons don't count and if you can bear off safely, you win. In match play with gammons counting, then your play of 5/3(2), 2/off(2) is a pretty good play and might be best. In either case though, I would try 4/off(2)! Although this leaves a gap, it isn't a very dangerous gap and it has three good things going for it. Firstly it makes it almost impossible to leave a double shot and certainly not anytime soon. Secondly it means that you don't now have to play fours at all. This will slow down your bearoff and with any luck the other side will roll big numbers and break her board, rendering any shots that she does get less effective. The third is that if you play 5/3(2), 2/off (2) then it's pretty clear that you should cash with the cube next turn. After 4/off(2) you can play on for the gammon for at least one more roll, because you have no bad rolls next turn! Good eh?
Keeping even on the highest point is good, even and stripped on the highest two points, less so. Being stacked on the highest point and stripped on the next one, as here, is also dangerous and to be avoided if you can.
Bearoff technique is many faceted and far from simple. The technique of "reading the numbers" which means making a mental scan ahead for danger on the next turn is very valuable. Try and think in terms of concrete numbers rather than depending on abstract principles.

[kerosene]

thanks for the reply. yes it was a 1 point match. I've been reading about doubling, equity, market windows n such but it's not really clicking for me yet so I've been concentrating on playing and learning from single point matches at the moment where they don't end prematurely with the dice, letting me play as many end games as possible. (i need to think more about your cube statements b4 i can comment)
Really nice analysis about bearing off which i think is my weakest area (apart from the cube lol) and why i posted this question, i lose far too many games from positions like this.
I love the slowing down idea of the 4s, i'm often praying for low dice, and your other points are gratefully received - very helpful indeed.

thanks again

ker  sene

[garp_02]

I'd play 5-3(4) but what do I know!

[dorbel]

Yes at dmp, cubeless rollouts do suggest that 5-3(4) is best.