Game 2, move 21 gaspar to play 4-4

[ah_clem]

Despite my best efforts, I can't seem to get the dice out of diane mode.  The herd rolled a 6-5 and played the forced move.  Now gaspar has a 44 to play.

[socksey]

BOO!!!!!!!!!!  There!  Maybe that will do it!   

socksey



"It is a sad thing when men have neither the wit to speak well nor the judgment to hold their tongues." - Jean de la Bruyere

[diane]

Mr_clem, do stop blaming others for your inabilities with dice rolling. I will meditate on some better dice for you after dinner...just try not to completely mess this up while I am away..stall if need be..

[gaspar]

well we are officially in too good to cube territory..really couldnt ask for  a better roll...9-5 * (2) and 8-4* (2)...
let's see
1. makes the gold and silver pt
2. puts 2 guys on bar
3. favoured to gammon now
4 life is good

amazing what a folded 20 in clem's palm will do

[gaspar]

oh yeah and clem i did have a  cube there before the 4's  LOL with one on bar and  lots of rolls to make a pt + pick and pass to put you guys 2 on bar...4-1 4-3 5-4- 6-5  6-3 4-2 etc etc...pick and pass dbl 2-3-4-5 -6  it was prob. a drop now that i am looking at it....

[gaspar]

it's too bad clem rolled me the doubles..but the position is interesting enough...is this a cube for me and is it a take..we should submit comments on both sides of the board.  i mean the objective of this excercise is to examine some interesting postitions and discuss together....

there are arguements here for dbl -pass.  too good to dbl...no dbl -take ...

personally i think the huge gammon vig.....gotta be over 20% gammons here...makes it a cube....just on gammmons alone.....i think the game is not a slam dunk for me...and i wouldnt be too hard to convince that it is too good to cube...i mean what are your bad rolls here ...even a 5-5 -- my worse  puts you 2 on the bar.,.i mean what is a bad roll here for me...you are still on the bar and very vulnerable...

my conclusion for this pos . is.
1.  lead in race YES
2.  good position YES
3. threats YES, YES YES
4. does herd have an easy take NO NONO

so ...it is a cube for sure..

is it too good??
1. no bad rolls.
2. high gammon vig.
3. already on bar
4. 3 juicy blots.

i would keep cube and try to gammon
does match score have any bearing .....i am up 1-0 ..with a gammon it would be 5-0...with dropped cube up 3-0 ..take and gammon game over..

conclusion
i won't give up the cube, since i can probably cube you guys out later..i will hold cube and try a roll

so before we push fwd let's look at this position...

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

My practice is if I have any doubts on whether it's correct to roll I peek at the gnubg hint before rolling.  This usually results in me having to recuse myself from cube decisions for a few moves, but I think it's worth it to make the match run smoothly - I don't want to miss any close decisions, and I don't want to waste a lot of time on decisions that aren't close.  In this case I was 90% sure it was not close to a double, but I checked gnubg anyway just to be sure - it was a pretty clear hold/take, so I just rolled.  With the double fours, the equity has changed a lot, so I don't think I'm prejudicing future cube decisions by saying this, but  I'll recuse myself anyway.

I'll definitely pause for a cube decision next roll, since I'm not sure what the cube action is.  And I'll start a rollout and post it when the results are moot.

[close]

[ah_clem]

cube decisions rollout:

Spoiler

Was this a double prior to rolling the 4-4?  gnubg 2-ply rollout says no.  A double whopper to cube here.




Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +0.797
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.203)
3. Double, take         +0.349  ( -0.448)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (49.2%)


Rollout details:
Player Gaspar owns 2-cube:
  0.636 0.329 0.034 - 0.364 0.077 0.003 CL  +0.682 CF  +0.797
[0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.007 CF   0.008]
Player Herd owns 4-cube:
  0.635 0.422 0.033 - 0.365 0.091 0.008 CL  +0.780 CF  +0.349
[0.002 0.008 0.003 - 0.002 0.005 0.002 CL   0.009 CF   0.011]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 882573024 and quasi-random dice
Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]