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Game 2, move 22 gaspar Cube decision

Started by ah_clem, April 22, 2011, 05:53:58 PM

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ah_clem

we danced with 66, and I'm pausing to see if gaspar wants to cube.

diane

 :blink: :blink:

Looking at this mess, in all its awfulness..I cant help but wonder what I was thinking leaving this with clem to take care of. Remind me to never let him look after my dogs...
Never give up on the things that make you smile

gaspar

my name is billy tucker not silly fucker......i uh think i will go for G....
now if i had only one chance to roll a 6 with you guys say one on the bar i would consider it but i will have at least 4 or 5 shots to roll a 6 before i have to even consider crashing...i will say this your board is VERY scary and with 2 pts in hand i will be treading lightly

btw a big thx to clem for managing this while diane is away

ah_clem

Quote from: gaspar on April 23, 2011, 01:33:40 PM

btw a big thx to clem for managing this while diane is away

Well, depending on what you mean by "managing" I guess this is a compliment. (c:

Here's a rollout of the cube decision:

Spoiler

This is pretty clearly too good to double. 2-ply analysis has this as a pass,but 0-ply rollout has it as a narrow take (due to the match score).  I'm having a hard time believing that this is a take... starting 2-ply rollout...



Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity  +1.540 (Money:  +1.180)
 0.786 0.587 0.049 - 0.214 0.028 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +1.381
2. Double, take         +1.335  ( -0.046)
3. Double, pass         +1.000  ( -0.381)
Proper cube action: Too good to redouble, pass


ROLLOUT:


Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +1.412
2. Double, take         +0.995  ( -0.416)
3. Double, pass         +1.000  ( -0.412)
Proper cube action: Too good to redouble, take



Rollout details:
Player Gaspar owns 2-cube:
 0.734 0.580 0.103 - 0.266 0.039 0.001 CL  +1.395 CF  +1.412
[0.002 0.003 0.005 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.009 CF   0.010]
Player Herd owns 4-cube:
 0.734 0.657 0.090 - 0.266 0.042 0.002 CL  +1.309 CF  +0.995
[0.002 0.006 0.005 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.012 CF   0.015]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 882573024 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]


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ah_clem

2-ply rollout

Spoiler


Two ply rollout has this as a pass, but not by as much as one would think at first glance.  Why is this even remotely a take?  Well, once the cube is turned, gammons don't matter anymore, so it's only the GWC that factor in the decision, and gaspar is only ~74% to win here.  With 26% GWC for us, it's almost a take.  But cubing would be a massive blunder.



Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +1.460
2. Double, take         +1.051  ( -0.409)
3. Double, pass         +1.000  ( -0.460)
Proper cube action: Too good to redouble, pass

Rollout details:
Player Gaspar owns 2-cube:
  0.742 0.591 0.118 - 0.258 0.036 0.002 CL  +1.436 CF  +1.460
[0.002 0.003 0.006 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.008 CF   0.009]
Player Herd owns 4-cube:
  0.743 0.675 0.119 - 0.257 0.036 0.002 CL  +1.355 CF  +1.051
[0.002 0.007 0.006 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.010 CF   0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 882573024 and quasi-random dice
Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


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