I humbly ask the opinion of the indulgent herd....

[diane]

ok, no one likes my move here..I think it is the right thing to do, in these circumstances.  

I would appreciate input from the spectators and hoard, before I make any reference to what my unpopular move was...

[ah_clem]

A couple ways to go here:

1) take two off to increase gammon chances

2) clear the 5 point  - a point that's cleared is not to be feared .

3) play both from the four point and leave oneself even-ended.

I don't think 2 is correct, since it leaves you odd-ended, gives him twice as many chances to enter (and run off the gammon), and doesn't bear off a checker (also reducing gammon chances).

White needs 16 crossovers to save gammon, so I think we can get away with the safer 4/off 4/1 4/off 4/3 - I don't think we need to play riskily to get the gammon.

[DicePolice]

avoid being odd ended so ...
4/3, 4/off

and as far as I know (which predates internet & gnu & BG books) this is the rule that applies to all bear off situations. Do not odd end yourself if you can avoid it.

[diane]

grrr..initial evaluation agreed with me in gnu - but now a roll out has decided the safe play is better...ok..will play safe.  

Spoiler

1. Rollout          4/3 4/off                    Eq.:  +1.849
       0.975 0.917 0.053 - 0.025 0.000 0.000 CL  +1.849 CF  +1.849
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.003]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888040438 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    2. Rollout          4/off 1/off                  Eq.:  +1.829 ( -0.020)
       0.957 0.897 0.079 - 0.043 0.000 0.000 CL  +1.828 CF  +1.829
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888040438 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    3. Rollout          4/off 3/2                    Eq.:  +1.709 ( -0.140)
       0.933 0.865 0.056 - 0.067 0.000 0.000 CL  +1.722 CF  +1.709
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888040438 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]

[garp_02]

I@m going with Clem's 4/off, 4/1 and would like a loan of those dice 

But seriously 4/off, 4/3 seems obvious - the gammon is looking good but no need to force it

[Caleb]

I agree with 4 off 4-3 (Or "I agree with Nick" as we used to say in UK - you gotta be English to get that though ;^)