Game 4, move 10: Herd Take or Pass

[diane]

Position ID: YndnCADcNkMBDA
Match ID: MBmgABAAGAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Our take point at this match score is 20%.  If stog misses we're almost there, and he misses 14/36 times or about 39%.  The only thing unclear about the take is the possibility of gammons and that may tilt it towards a pass, but I'm going to say take.

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[ah_clem]

Diane,

Can you post the sgf file?   I'd like to do some rolllouts once the cube decision is over.

[diane]

of course..though I always post the gnu ID, so you can always do it from that.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Stog is only 47.5% to win this one, and gammons are not terribly common, so this is not a double by a good margin, and it would be a HUGE octuple whopper to pass.


Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.040 (Money:  -0.043)

Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +0.215
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.785)
3. Double, take         -0.018  ( -0.233)
Proper cube action: No double, take (22.9%)

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.476 0.112 0.003 - 0.524 0.103 0.008 CL  +0.040 CF  +0.215
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.004 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.010]
Player Herd owns 2-cube:
  0.475 0.108 0.004 - 0.525 0.131 0.010 CL  -0.018 CF  -0.018
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.005 0.002 CL   0.012 CF   0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

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