Game 2, move 10: ah_clem 6-4

[diane]

Herd danced with 6-3, you are up again.

[ah_clem]

Another tough decision.  One option is to run now since I've gotten my six, but that leaves a few too many return hits (fourteen if I counted right - anyway four blots strewn about is not a great idea)  I'm going to dismiss this play.

Another option is do bring down two aiming four builders at the blot.  This leaves 7 shots, but two of them (4-1) might be better played by anchoring, so maybe 5 shots.  With four builders, I count 13 shakes that cover the four next roll.

The third option is to hit loose on the 4, putting a second checker in the air.  This leaves 11 shots, so it's more risky than the second option.  But it also gives me 24 shakes to cover the four, so I'm more likely to cover.

This is a tough call, and my hunch is that there's a fair amount of equity difference riding on it.  I look at it this way - if the Herd rolls a 4, I'm in trouble either way - either the Herd anchors and then has lots of timing to leap what little is left of my blockade, or the Herd enters and hits.  So, since it's bad either way if the Herd rolls a 4, I might as well make the play that is better for me when the Herd doesn't shake a 4.  So, I'm going to hit loose.

13/7 8/4*

My sense is that to correctly analyze this position one would have to take into consideration the cube action after the herd anchors or hits - but I'm not a good enough cube handler to do that.

[ah_clem]

BTW, I invite the Herd to comment on my plays after I've made them.  I'll post rollouts eventually, but in the meantime I'd welcome other's opinions on the positions.

For me, the main point of these matches is not to see who wins, but to have good analysis and discussions of the various positions. The really cool thing about the Forum matches is that you can be confident that there's no QF involved.