Game 4, move 7: ah_clem take/pass decision

[diane]

Do you want this? 

[ah_clem]

No, I don't want this cube, but it looks like I have to take it.

The herd still has two checkers stuck on the ace point, an ugly stack on the midpoint, and only two shakes to point on my head.  There are some pick-and-pass numbers and 64 leaps out and hits, but other than that I'm in no immediate danger.  I'm 75% to enter (unless the Herd rolls 42) and 14 rolls anchor.  Unfortunately all the hitting numbers except 62 are duplicated, but so it goes.

So I'll eat this cube.  Roll away.  Do your worst. (c:

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Failing to cube here is a septuple whopper.  Kudos to the Herd for correctly doubling.

Unfortunately for me, it's a pretty clear cash at score.  On must be very shy about accepting a cube at 2-away 4-away when there are gammons afoot.  Even though I win about 43% of games (and win the match when I do), those 25% gammon losses are killer.

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.302 (Money:  +0.199)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1.000
2. Double, take         +1.136  ( +0.136)
3. No double            +0.681  ( -0.319)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
 0.570 0.250 0.019 - 0.430 0.176 0.035 CL  +0.302 CF  +0.681
[0.002 0.001 0.002 - 0.002 0.004 0.003 CL   0.008 CF   0.009]
Player O owns 2-cube:
 0.577 0.254 0.036 - 0.423 0.205 0.053 CL  +1.136 CF  +1.136
[0.002 0.002 0.003 - 0.002 0.006 0.005 CL   0.015 CF   0.015]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 935662488 and
quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

BTW, this result is highly dependent on the match score.  I rolled it out as a money-position and for money it's a very clear take and a huge error to cube.

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