Game 4, move 16: ah_clem 5-2

[diane]

[ah_clem]

Interesting problem - I can start to clear the rear point now and leave 15 shots or I can play to minimize shots with 6/1 5/3 - this only leaves 11 shots, but makes it harder to clear the nine point later.  With the "riskier" play, when I'm not hit only 55 65 and 54 stand in the way of clearing, while the "safe" play gives me 65 64 62 and 61 that fail to clean up - that's 8 vs 5 bad shakes, but the real issue is that except for a few good rolls the nine point is still there after cleaning up the blot on the six.

That's 42% vs 30% bad rolls right now and 14% vs 22% bad rolls next time.  But the 14/22 are only shot leaving rolls, the Herd still has to hit, so the difference next time is less than the 8% difference would seem to indicate.

I think I'll minimize shots - give the Herd 30% to win immediately instead of 42%, and then hope that I don't shake one of the 22% that leave a shot (or that the Herd misses it if I do).    If the Herd's board was weaker (but growing in strength) I'd probably pay now, but in this situation where the Herd's board is at peak strength I'll opt to pay later.   Clearing the nine will still be a problem, but perhaps I'll shake something that clears, or the Herd will miss, or the Herd's board will crunch by then.

6/1 5/3.