Game 5, move 12: Herd 4-3

[diane]

[ah_clem]

Since it's tied at the end of regulation I extended the voting. I'll leave the tiebreaker details up to diane. Let me know when youve made up your minds.

[diane]

Any thoughts on this one?

Spoiler

I liked 12/9*/5, because it both hit, and brought up a builder to try and make another point in Herds home board. If he dances we get another go at the back one, or a chance to make a point. It seemed the better play to me.  Can someone argue this one more eloquently - or say something for the alternative move?

[close]

The tie breaker details if we are still tied after the voting period expires again, is 'I pick' 

[ah_clem]

When does the voting period expire?  I see that your preferred move is in the lead by 3 to 2, and I haven't even voted yet.  (c:

[diane]

It ends whenever you told it to end...you extended it...

Having said that - now my move is in the lead, now seems a good time to cut it off - before you vote...

In the spirit of fairness, I will give it an hour or so more 

[ah_clem]

I didn't specify a time limit when I extended the voting period, so the voting will remain open until somebody closes it manually.  Do as you see fit.  (c:

[ah_clem]

So now that the Herd has made up its mind I can weigh in with my opinion.

Making the nine point seems to be a much stronger move.  Granted, it leaves a blot for me to aim at, but I'm not at all sure that I want to hit it even if I can - hitting just wrecks my timing and my blockade is weak  so I don't think there's any real risk with leaving the blot.  Meanwhile, the nine point is six points away from my 3 point anchor which has a spare on it.  I'm eager to move that spare and the nine point would block it quite nicely (and any other checker that I might want to recirculate). 

Granted, abandoning the midpoint with three men still back is not the normal course of action, but I think the nine point is enough of an asset that it's worth giving up the midpoint to make the nine.

I'll start a rollout as soon as I'm done rolling out my last play.

[diane]

gnu standard analysis [not roll out] has 12/9*/5 as very bad...

But..it has 22/18, 12/9* as the best..guess getting some back ones moving is what it is thinking..., which makes you wonder more why 22/15* isnt better than that..

For sure there was a lot to think about here!

Will roll this out now..race ya  

[stog]

yep this is an interesting position/choice

[diane]

This rollout is taking forever, not helped by computer keep stopping for a snooze...it is also severely impacting my ability to do anything else!

13/9*, 12/9 seems to be coming out best at 80% done...

[diane]

Yeah!! It finished..changed our move from 'very bad' to 'doubtful'! 

Code Select Expand

1. Rollout          13/9* 12/9                   Eq.:  +0.298
       0.649 0.470 0.155 - 0.351 0.080 0.014 CL  +0.298 CF  +0.298
      [0.005 0.009 0.008 - 0.005 0.004 0.002 CL   0.010 CF   0.010]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 906168227 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    2. Rollout          22/18 12/9*                  Eq.:  +0.281 ( -0.017)
       0.641 0.437 0.150 - 0.359 0.083 0.018 CL  +0.281 CF  +0.281
      [0.005 0.008 0.008 - 0.005 0.004 0.003 CL   0.010 CF   0.010]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 906168227 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    3. Rollout          22/15*                       Eq.:  +0.269 ( -0.029)
       0.635 0.466 0.169 - 0.365 0.075 0.015 CL  +0.269 CF  +0.269
      [0.005 0.009 0.009 - 0.005 0.004 0.003 CL   0.011 CF   0.011]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 906168227 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    4. Rollout          12/9*/5                      Eq.:  +0.244 ( -0.055)
       0.622 0.452 0.156 - 0.378 0.087 0.014 CL  +0.244 CF  +0.244
      [0.005 0.008 0.008 - 0.005 0.005 0.002 CL   0.009 CF   0.009]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 906168227 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


[ah_clem]

It's not surprising that the rollout takes a long time.  This is a fairly complicated position that could go on for a while, and with the dead cube every game has to be played out all the way to the end.

The other thing that shouldn't surprise is that analysis & rollout may differ significantly.  Again, this is a complex position where some positional features may not manifest themselves for several moves. Further, I'd caution against taking the rollout's word for it - we know that gnu doesn't play backgames particularly well, so take it with a grain of salt.  Of course, that said, gnu plays backgames better than me so I can do worse than just following its example.

BTW, I've done a rollout of my move 12 (63 to play from the bar), and it's also an interesting one.  Anyone care to post an opinion on that play?  I'll post the rollout in a day or so.

[stiefnu]

Well, I think I might have simply played bar-22, 24-18.  The Herd had 3 men back, so there seems less reason than usual to hang back, particularly as you'd be in big trouble if the ace point were to get made, with that blot going upstairs.  Stacking your 22-point at least would have given better coverage of the Herd's outfield, with the spare on the bar point.

[ah_clem]

I've posted a reply & rollout on the original thread.

http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-11/game-5-move-12-ah_clem-6-3/