Game 5, move 17: ah_clem 4-4

[diane]

Knock yourself out  

[ah_clem]

Another difficult decision.

I think I need to keep the anchor, and I need to keep my checkers in front of the Herd's.  So dumping checkers with something like 13/1 5/1 is contra-indicated despite keeping my back game structure intact.

I'd like to keep the bar point, mainly to prevent the Herd from making it, but I can't see how I can hold it and the anchor without giving up outfield control and either making an ugly stack on the 5 or dumping checkers.

That leaves playing off the bar and the midpoint as the only alternative, and 18/14(2) 13/9(2) looks better than 18/10(2).  Making a point six pips away from a runner at least blocks something and brings a third builder to bear on my next target point.  Meanwhile, the 14 acts as a surrogate midpoint.  Sorry to see the bar point go, but I don't see how I can hold it.


BLitzing with 13/9 13/5 6/2* is an interesting alternative.  It destroys my connectivity and slots the wrong point (I want to make the three point next, not the two), but it seizes the initiative and preserves my defensive structure.  If it works (dance/cover) it looks great, but if the Herd enters with a three I've simply buried a checker.

So, which of the two candidate plays to make?  This isn't something I would likely be able to solve OTB, and I'm not sure I've got it right, but by looking at both positions and seeing how many bad rolls each give the Herd I've arrived at a decision:

The blocking play seems to give the Herd 5 bad shakes 22, 23 & 25.  Everything else is either a good roll or merely OK.  The hitting play gives 14 15 44 45 46 55 56 & 66 as bad rolls - 13 total, plus the return shots give me timing.  So I'll hit here. If I'm missed, I have 18 rolls to cover, and if I'm hit I still have the backgame structure.   Not sure it's right, but this is supposed to be a learning experience. 

13/9 13/5 6/2*

BTW, 22/14(2) is also worth a look as it dominates the outfield while the Herd still has two backmen.  But it leaves my ace point blot almost defenseless and practically asks for a blitz attack