Game 1, move 5: Herd 6-4

[diane]

m

[ah_clem]

We're still behind in the race, we have the better board, a great anchor, and he has a blot in his homeboard.  Everything points to bold play. 13/3* may be too bold, but I'm going to play it anyway.  Again, if he escapes the runner he'll have a clear lead.  With him on the bar and 11 checkers in the zone we're in command.

FWIW, I don't think we had a cube before this roll, but I'm not positive. 

[ah_clem]

Regarding 20/10 - it abandons one of our primary assets to make a fairly useless point, and decreases the amount of contact when we're behind in the race - once we leave the 5 point, we'll have to pick up that blot soon and then we'll have nada behind our midpoint.  This leaves our opponent one big roll away from coasting to a racing victory. 

I'll be really surprised if 20/10  is correct.

[stiefnu]

Ok Diane, just in case you were thinking of asking, I won't ship the cube this time.  While any 2 or 3, or combinations thereof, will put the Herd on the bar, there are plenty that don't and I still have plenty of work to do.  No double.

BTW, I won't be around much on Sunday.  Playing in the UK Clubs Championship at Coventry for the Bristol B Team.  Our main aim is of course to beat Bristol A 

[ah_clem]

Now that the cube action is settled we can look at some bot results.

rollout:

Spoiler

Congratulations to the Herd for choosing the best play here.  A couple of quieter plays are borderline doubtful, and everything else is a whopper. I didn't rollout 20/10, but it's not close. I also didn't rollout the cube action, but it's not close either.


   1. Rollout          13/3*                        Eq.:  +0.376
      0.573 0.210 0.006 - 0.427 0.104 0.005 CL  +0.255 CF  +0.376
     [0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.008]
   
   2. Rollout          13/7 10/6                    Eq.:  +0.316 ( -0.060)
      0.553 0.168 0.004 - 0.447 0.066 0.005 CL  +0.236 CF  +0.316
     [0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.009]

   3. Rollout          8/4 8/2                      Eq.:  +0.309 ( -0.066)
      0.551 0.176 0.003 - 0.449 0.054 0.003 CL  +0.244 CF  +0.309
     [0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.008]
       Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
       1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 910687781 and quasi-random dice
       Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
       keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
       Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
       Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]



   7. Cubeful 0-ply    20/10                        Eq.:  +0.072 ( -0.303)
      0.517 0.129 0.004 - 0.483 0.110 0.003
       0-ply cubeful prune [expert]



Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity  +0.246 (Money:  +0.256)
 0.570 0.205 0.004 - 0.430 0.089 0.003
Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +0.357
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.643)
3. Double, take         +0.221  ( -0.136)
Proper cube action: No double, take (17.5%)

[close]