Game 1, move 8: Herd 3-1

[diane]

Steifnu rolled 2-1, and the move was very obvious, with anything other than Bar/1, 6/4 being a huge no no...

Herd is up with a 3-1, and choice between being passive or aggressive   Which do you want?

[diane]

well..we seem to have a consensus here...with passive being the way of the Herd 

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

This is one of two plays this game where the Herd made any kind of significant error.  Hitting loose on the ace is correct here - think about it: if he enters, he's still stuck behind a 5 prime and we will have no problem entering since we still have the anchor. If he misses we're 21/36 to cover right away and ice the gammon.  Our 21/36  looks a lot better than his 11/36 even if he gets to go first.

the rollout bears this out - hitting gives up 4%of wins to gain 15% additional gammons.  Well worth the trade,especially since we're still 80% to win with the hitting play.

BTW, i missed this vote - I'd like to think that i would have gotten it right, but would probably have voted for the chicken play.



    1. Rollout          5/1*                         Eq.:  +1.132
       0.799 0.521 0.002 - 0.201 0.041 0.004 CL  +1.234 CF  +1.132
      [0.001 0.003 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.006]

    2. Rollout          8/7 5/2                      Eq.:  +1.052 ( -0.080)
       0.838 0.370 0.004 - 0.162 0.032 0.002 CL  +1.124 CF  +1.052
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.006]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 917086324 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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