Game 2, move 4: Herd 6-3

[diane]

Lots and lots of permutations, so if you want something you dont see...just ask with reasoning.

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

Lots of choices but a few thematic ideas pick the move for me. We want to get and hit a shot and hang on to it if we can. Don't lose the mid, build our board from the top down, provoke contact, keep our back men in communication with each other to maximise return shots should we be hit. 24/18 8/5

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

AtS, the simple running play has a lot going for it.  It makes the race even (we'll be 4 pips ahead, but not on roll - that's dead even). and if we're not hit we should easily be able to bring the second runner through his swiss-cheese defense.

The other play I'd consider is making the 5 point and then slotting his bar point, thus provoking an exchange of hits with our opponent outboarded 3 to 1. 

I'm not sure which is best, so I'm going to opt for the more interesting play.  Running leads to a boring non-contact race a lot of the time, and I'm here to discuss interesting positions. If running was clearly better I go for that, but since it isn't let's make it interesting: 24/18 8/5.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Herd chooses the best play again, although several other choices are not far behind.





    1. Rollout          24/18 8/5                    Eq.:  -0.220
       0.393 0.065 0.005 - 0.607 0.057 0.001 CL  -0.220 CF  -0.220
      [0.001 0.004 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    2. Rollout          8/5 8/2                      Eq.:  -0.246 ( -0.026)
       0.381 0.095 0.006 - 0.619 0.073 0.002 CL  -0.246 CF  -0.246
      [0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    3. Rollout          23/14                        Eq.:  -0.248 ( -0.028)
       0.379 0.073 0.005 - 0.621 0.057 0.002 CL  -0.248 CF  -0.248
      [0.001 0.005 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    4. Rollout          24/18 9/6                    Eq.:  -0.275 ( -0.055)
       0.368 0.078 0.008 - 0.632 0.083 0.003 CL  -0.275 CF  -0.275
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 916626560 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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