Game 2, move 11: Herd 4-2

[diane]

Anyone want to split the anchor?

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

No... splitting turns too many of White's poor rolls into strong ones. I think we should try to kill 6s as well by bringing both men in... the race is going more and more his way and our best chance is to pick up a shot when that back point eventually has to be cleared. It works well when we roll 61, 62, 63, 66 next time; on 64 and 65 neither alternative (running off the anchor or busting our board) is any good.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Fill in the last homeboard point and leave the checker on the 8 so that we can play 7's next roll without busting the board.

Killing sixes is an intriguing idea, but I think having the solid board is worth more. Plus we're only 12 pips behind so we still have a chance to win going forward.  I don't think we want to intentionally make that worse.

[close]

[ah_clem]

ROLLOUT

Spoiler

Filling in the ace point is best, but moving two into the homeboard is very very close.  Splitting is a .126 whopper.

Note that we're still ~25% to win the game and ~75% to win the match.  Chin up, everyone!


XGID=-ABBBBBAA------b--bdbBbc--:0:0:1:42:4:0:1:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|       O        O |   | O  O  X  O  O    |
|       O        O |   | O  O  X  O  O    |
|                  |   | O           O    |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   | X  X  X  X  X    |
|             X  X |   | X  X  X  X  X  X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 98  O: 80 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 42

    1. Rollout¹    7/1                          eq:-0.512
      Player:   24.47% (G:0.54% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 75.53% (G:1.28% B:0.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.514..-0.510) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 2 minutes 12 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    8/4 7/5                      eq:-0.516 (-0.004)
      Player:   24.25% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 75.75% (G:1.45% B:0.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.518..-0.514) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 48 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    8/6 7/3                      eq:-0.523 (-0.011)
      Player:   23.93% (G:0.66% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 76.07% (G:1.39% B:0.02%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.525..-0.521) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 54.6 seconds

    4. 4-ply       8/2                          eq:-0.524 (-0.012)
      Player:   23.91% (G:0.80% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 76.09% (G:2.21% B:0.02%)

    5. 3-ply       8/4 3/1                      eq:-0.524 (-0.012)
      Player:   23.90% (G:0.80% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 76.10% (G:2.08% B:0.02%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]