Game 2, move 6 : Herd Cube Decision

[diane]

Take?

[Dungeoneer]

Spoiler

Certainly White is threatening to build a 5-6 prime soon, but yet just threatening.

43 and and some doubles would lose White's market; some would in combination with a subsequent non-joker shake of ours.
But if White doesn't improve her prime we'd also have some good shakes; esp 11, 33, and 44 and some maybe lucky punches in combinations with a 4, depending on  Whites roll and move.

If we'd drop we'd have 25% MWC at 2-way/5-away

If we take:

A pessimistic view:
------------------------
White wins 4 single games -> 15% MWC left for us -> 4*-10% -> -40%
White wins 3 gammons -> 0% MWC left for us -> 3*-25% -> -75%

Blue wins 3 single games -> 50% MWC tied ->  3*+25% -> +75%

=> -4%  MWC

An optimistic view:
------------------------
White wins 4 single games -> 15% MWC left for us -> 4*-10% -> -40%
White wins 2 gammons -> 0% MWC left for us -> 2*-25% -> -50%

Blue wins 4 single games -> 50% MWC tied ->  4*+25% -> +100%

=> +1% MWC

*But* there's yet no re-cube potential worked into the figures; e.g. there are even some scenarios possible, esp if White runs very fast with doubles, when we'd almost surely be gammoned if we miss a late shot or win if we hit with 11/36 which could be a reasonable re-cubes for us despite trailing in the game.

Summing up it's a close decision  - there are still some fighting chances in the game thus I eat that cube.

"TAKE!"

[close]

[KDP]

Spoiler

we have a useless checker on the ace, we have 2 checkers stuck on our 24 pt, white has a better board and is threatening to make it even better, i dont see how we can really contain white 3 stragglers  i pass.

[close]

[NIHILIST]

Pass and offer extras.

Bob

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

If we pass this, we're at 5a 2a for a MWC of 25%.
If we take and win, we're 3a 3a for 50%.
If we take and lose, we're 5a 1a crawford for 15%.

So by taking we're risking 10 to gain 25. our raw takepoint is then

r/(r+g) = 10/35 or about 29%.

I'm not seeing it.  We have basically no assets and little hope of getting our runners off the ace point.  Pass.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The only thing I can figure is that there must be whopping recube vig here since we're right at the raw takepoint and we get gammoned about 25% of the time.  Even after staring at the numbers I'm still not sure how this is a take.


XGID=-A--cCCB---BaB--abbb-bb-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:2:0:5:10



Analyzed in Rollout
No double
  Player Winning Chances:   72.23% (G:24.67% B:3.10%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.77% (G:6.21% B:0.65%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:   72.55% (G:24.85% B:4.17%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.45% (G:6.29% B:1.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.724, Double=+1.295

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.830 (-0.062)
       Double/Take:   +0.893
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+0.107)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
  Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.816..+0.845)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.018 (+0.874..+0.911)

  Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
  Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

  Duration: 33 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]