Game 2, move 7 : Herd 4-1

[diane]

Lots of options here, let me know if you prefer another - with reasons of course...

[KDP]

Spoiler

we need to split our back men but moving all the way up to the 20 would be a blunder so 24-23 for the 1 that leaves covering our ace point 5-1 with the only reasonable 4

[close]

as an aside, it seems last time someone forgot to actually vote.  we had 3 comments passing the cube but only 2 actual votes.

[Dungeoneer]

Spoiler

If we split to the 20pt white will blow us off the board with 4/3 and small doubles and happily enter a hitting contest with
- a stronger board,
- a blot in our home-board,
- and a high anchor;
and for having at least one appropriate number for that she'd be 3/4 favorite.

I first voted for 6/1 but changed my vote to 24/23 5/1.

It'd be nice to stick to our anchor BUT we'll shortly run out of safe moves for high shakes cause our outerboard points and our midpoint are stripped and being hit there and having 3-4 men back then will be as gammonish as an attacking attempt on our split back-men now.

Contrary to be sitting duck and wait for having our points to break we should at least try to do sth.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

She has 12 checkers in the zone and an advanced anchor, so any split will cause the full weight of her zonal checkers to fall on the heads of our two runners.  I'd consider running with a 44 45 or 46, but the 41 gives her too much to aim at.  And with the anchor she'll not be hesitant to hit loose and try to pick up the gammon.

Making our 1 point might seem lame, but I think it gives us the best possibility of winning.  With a 3 point board we have some real counterplay if we get a shot, and she still has to bring three runners around.  We may have another point in our homeboard by the time we get a shot.  Anyway, that seems the best path to victory.  Better than spending the rest of the game on the bar.

6/1

[close]

[ah_clem]

  as an aside, it seems last time someone forgot to actually vote.  we had 3 comments passing the cube but only 2 actual votes.

I think that was me.  The server threw an error when I tried to vote, and I wasn't sure whether it registered or not. Apparently not.  But it would have made no difference.

[stiefnu]

Seems like a couple of votes went astray.  I voted to drop, which was registered, but didn't have time to make a comment.