Game 2, move 8 : Herd 2-1

[diane]

I'm with dungeoneer on this..lets try to find something that frightens Julia..instead of making her feel glad   

[KDP]

Spoiler

we need to split the back men to try and escape  24-23  5-3

[close]

[Dungeoneer]

Spoiler

splitting seems mandatory; but how to play the deuce? 13/11 leaves a blot on our midpoint; 5/3 weakens our board but plays safer - for now. But White has a spare on her 21pt which will grant her the timing to wait for us to break one of our points sooner or later anyway. Thus I prefer to give her two additional good rolls (63) now (54 is sort-of duplicated because she could point with that on our head on her 2 after the split anyway) while we could use our spare on the 11pt as a builder for our outer-board if she misses. 24/23 13/11

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We need to split with the ace. Then 5/3 is the only reasonable thing to do with the deuce.  Granted, the homeboard blot will encourage her to hit loose, but hitting loose on the 23 and 24 points is not as strong as hitting loose on higher points. If we can anchor on the 20 or escape we've got real chances.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

A close one, but we chose the right move.  The good news is that as of this play we were still 30% to win the game.  Tha bad news is that we were 33% to lose a gammon.




XGID=-B--cCBB---B-B---bbd-bb-B-:1:1:1:21:0:2:0:5:10


    1. Rollout¹    24/23 5/3                    eq:-0.295
      Player:   31.60% (G:7.90% B:0.68%)
      Opponent: 68.40% (G:33.50% B:3.86%)
      Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.306..-0.285) - [77.1%]
      Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes

    2. Rollout¹    5/2                          eq:-0.300 (-0.005)
      Player:   29.14% (G:6.88% B:0.33%)
      Opponent: 70.86% (G:23.04% B:4.83%)
      Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.309..-0.292) - [22.9%]
      Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes

    3. Rollout¹    24/23 13/11                  eq:-0.329 (-0.034)
      Player:   30.24% (G:6.93% B:0.50%)
      Opponent: 69.76% (G:29.63% B:2.08%)
      Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.338..-0.320) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes

    4. Rollout¹    13/12 13/11                  eq:-0.333 (-0.038)
      Player:   27.86% (G:6.30% B:0.24%)
      Opponent: 72.14% (G:20.84% B:2.89%)
      Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.342..-0.325) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 hour 01 minute

    5. Rollout¹    7/6 7/5                      eq:-0.363 (-0.068)
      Player:   27.31% (G:6.25% B:0.45%)
      Opponent: 72.69% (G:22.91% B:3.25%)
      Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.372..-0.355) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 56 minutes 15 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]