Game 3, move 9 : Herd 1-1

[diane]

move?

[Dungeoneer]

Spoiler

White still has plenty of pips to play before she'll have to leave, so I dismiss 4/1, 3/2, which would be good if getting a shot would be close. Thus for me its the flexible 10/8, 10/9, 4/3

[close]

[Krazula]

Spoiler

I vote 10/8(2). In this position we're ahead in the pip count so the idea is to clear our 7,8,9,10 points without leaving a shot and without putting our checkers too deep in our board causing wastage. The safest way to clear our outfield points is to clear the furthest point first so the first 2 1s must be 10/9(2). We have 2 more 1s to play after that and there are a few choices, none really stand out to me and I assume they're all about the same. The 4/3 option seems like it might be slightly worse because its one pip that we're not using to bear in more quickly.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

It's close enough that maintaining the blockade is a viable strategy, but we're  ahead enough that clearing is also a viable strategy.

My take was that maintaining the blockade was more important so my play was 4/1 3/2, but XG disagrees.  In retrospect, her runners aren't going anywhere for a roll or two as she'll build her board first, so the blockade isn't all that crucial.  It blocks 55, but that's about it, and by the time she's ready to run off the anchor we'll have (hopefully) cleared some points.  Might as well start clearing now.

XG favors clearing the 9 point over the 10 - this blocks 55, which is a better roll for her than 44.  Covering the 3 point doesn't appear to be very important.

All that said, the plays are all very close.  There don't appear to be any serious repercussions if you choose the wrong move here.


XGID=-A-ACbBBBBB---a-aaabbab-b-:0:0:1:11:0:4:1:5:10


    1. Rollout¹    9/8 9/6                      eq:+0.456
      Player:   72.79% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 27.21% (G:0.27% B:0.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.455..+0.458) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    10/9 10/7                    eq:+0.448 (-0.009)
      Player:   72.35% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 27.65% (G:0.36% B:0.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.446..+0.450) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 3 minutes 22 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    10/8(2)                      eq:+0.444 (-0.013)
      Player:   72.16% (G:0.72% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 27.84% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.442..+0.446) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    10/9 10/8 4/3                eq:+0.443 (-0.014)
      Player:   72.10% (G:0.76% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 27.90% (G:0.51% B:0.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.441..+0.445) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 4 minutes 42 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    4/1 3/2                      eq:+0.439 (-0.017)
      Player:   71.94% (G:0.71% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 28.06% (G:0.47% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.437..+0.442) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 4 minutes 05 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]