Game 3, move 12 : Herd 1-1

[diane]

Lots of options here again...

[diane]

4 options with one vote each...we are gonna need some tie breaking persuasion folks..

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

After this play we'll be ahead in the race by 16 pips, plus Julia still has to bring her runners all the way around the board while we're poised to bear in quickly.  This says clear the rearmost point, so 9/8(2) is the way to start.  I prefer moving on to the 7 to prepare to clear the 8 point next roll.  Clear from the rear, stay even ended, and avoid gaps is the standard advice.   Maybe a different approach is warranted here, but I'm going to go with the standard advice. 9/7(2). I especially like that it prepares us to clear the 8 point next roll.

9/6, 9/8 leaves us odd ended and while it doesn't have any immediate shot leaving rolls, 63 and 33 play very awkwardly. It does bear in a checker, but I think the awkwardness or the resulting structure outweighs that benefit.

8/6(2) bears in two and is good for the race, but I don't like the gap.  Maybe it's ok, but it looks awkward.

9/8(2) 4/2 just wastes pips by shuffling a checker in the home board.

[close]

[diane]

I have extended the voting on this, to see if a preferred move can be found..otherwise we will make my fav move 

[garp_02]

4/2 (2)

[ah_clem]

I've added Garp's choice to the options.  Heck, why not have a six-way tie?

[Krazula]

Spoiler

8/6(2) looks best to me.

It leaves us even on the back 2 points we have clear, it gives us two crossovers, it lets us put checkers on the 6 point avoiding wastage, it leaves us with no rolls that will make us leave a shot next roll, and probably most importantly it clears a point that we need to clear.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Clearing the 8 point and bearing in two is best according to XG.  Post-hoc reasoning suggests that since the race is still somewhat close bearing in two is worth quite a bit.  Also, since she's not going to be able to hold her anchor for much longer the awkward structure is not as much of an issue as is usual. 



XGID=-BABBbBBBB--------abbbcab-:0:0:1:11:0:4:1:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:4 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|                O |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
|                  |   | O  O  O  O     O |
|                  |   |          O       |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|          X  X  X |   | X  O  X  X     X |
|          X  X  X |   | X  O  X  X  X  X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 78  O: 90 X-O: 0-4/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 11

    1. Rollout¹    8/6(2)                       eq:+0.513
      Player:   75.63% (G:0.87% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 24.37% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.512..+0.515) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    7/6(2) 4/2                   eq:+0.500 (-0.013)
      Player:   74.95% (G:1.12% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 25.05% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.499..+0.501) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 50 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    9/8 9/6                      eq:+0.495 (-0.018)
      Player:   74.70% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 25.30% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.494..+0.496) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    9/8(2) 7/6(2)                eq:+0.490 (-0.023)
      Player:   74.48% (G:0.69% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 25.52% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.489..+0.491) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    8/7 8/6 3/2                  eq:+0.482 (-0.032)
      Player:   74.04% (G:1.06% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 25.96% (G:0.65% B:0.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.480..+0.483) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds

    6. Rollout¹    7/6(2) 3/2(2)                eq:+0.471 (-0.043)
      Player:   73.50% (G:0.83% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 26.50% (G:0.44% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.469..+0.472) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 48 seconds

    7. Rollout¹    9/7(2)                       eq:+0.465 (-0.049)
      Player:   73.19% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 26.81% (G:0.24% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.463..+0.466) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds



¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]