when to double before the bear off

[boop]

hi

HI, I've read various bits about when to double near the end of the bear off -  earlier in the bearoff i thought I needed a pip lead of around 7-10 before I should double but this gnu analysis shows that I made a bad non double where I only had a lead of 2 pips.
so is there any advice on how I can better analyse these early bearoff situation?
(I can see that my distribution is better but can it really be worth 5 pips?)

tx

[KDP]

i would double this against a stronger opponent and hold on vs a weaker one.  there is some wastage  for white w/ the extra checker on the ace and a gap on the 5 pt and as you've noted red does have a better distribution.  running this position through XG says its a double/take.  looking at keith and thorp counts both have it as a ND/T and Trice count has it as a D/T.

[boop]

thanks KDP I'm looking at those various count methods now - is there one in particular that you find is most accurate, most often?

[ah_clem]

I use the Trice count - it's newer and more accurate than the Thorpe count and much easier to calculate than the Keith count.

Applying it here, Red has 62 pips to go.  Subtract 5, divide by 7 and you get 8 pips.  That's white's point of last take: 8 pips behind.  Adjusting white's pipcount by adding 2 for the extra checker on the ace and 1 for the gap on the 5 makes it 62 to 67, or a difference of 5 pips,  Since this is within 3 pips of the point of last take, it's a double, and since it's not beyond the point of last take it's a take.

Note that the Trice count is for money play; here white doesn't realize the full value of a recube so red can be more aggressive with the double.