Game 2, move 8 : Patti take or pass?

[diane]

?

[Patti]

The cube... the cube is MINE!  Bwahahahaha.

[diane]

I think she means 'take'     

[ah_clem]

Cube decision rollout.

Spoiler

This is a close one.  XG Roller+ put it as a double by .001.  A full rollout says it's correct to double by a margin of .023

The take seemed pretty trivial, but you never know.  Sometimes you just need to turn the cube to see if your opponent will make a mistake.

BTW, at a normal match score, it would be a whopper to hold the cube here.  AtS, the nasty recubes are the factor making it a close decision.



XGID=---b-BCBBBB-a----a-cbbbbAA:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:5:10



Analyzed in Rollout
No double
  Player Winning Chances:   72.73% (G:15.60% B:0.47%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.27% (G:6.56% B:0.60%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:   73.02% (G:15.95% B:0.81%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 26.98% (G:6.60% B:1.15%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.580, Double=+1.137

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.798 (-0.023)
       Double/Take:   +0.821
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+0.179)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
  Confidence No Double: ± 0.017 (+0.781..+0.815)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.028 (+0.793..+0.849)

  Double Decision confidence: 91.6%
  Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

  Duration: 17 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]

[diane]

You have to love the concept of a 'normal' match score in backgammon