Game 1, move 2 : Herd 6-3

[diane]

How do you want to go, Herd?

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We're outboarded so I think the hit is unsound.  We're in a holding game, so don't volunteer a shot.

13/7 6/3

[close]

[dorbel]

Spoiler

It's the economy stupid, read pipcount for economy. Hitting loose isn't correct here because Blue leads by 23 pips after the roll. No need to give 18 shots to jeopardise that. Of course Blue will be mildly unhappy if White anchors next, but not as unhappy as he would be if she hits back from the bar! Blue might have hit loose if White had some threats next turn, but she doesn't. 13/7, 6/3 and hope to point on something next turn.

[close]

[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

The safe play is best, for the reasons stated above.  Hitting loose is a .08 error.  Anything else is Awful!


XGID=-a-Ba-DBB---dC---bBcbb----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O  X |   | O  O  O          |
| X           O  X |   | O  O  O          |
| X                |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
| O                |   | X                |
| O                |   | X                |
| O           X  X |   | X        X       |
| O           X  X |   | X     O  X     O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 135  O: 149 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 63

    1. XG Roller++ 13/7 6/3                     eq:+0.287
      Player:   57.88% (G:12.29% B:0.27%)
      Opponent: 42.12% (G:8.70% B:0.28%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/4*                        eq:+0.205 (-0.082)
      Player:   54.50% (G:16.11% B:0.56%)
      Opponent: 45.50% (G:12.68% B:0.47%)

    3. 2-ply       7/1* 7/4*                    eq:-0.016 (-0.304)
      Player:   48.65% (G:17.08% B:0.41%)
      Opponent: 51.35% (G:16.60% B:0.72%)

    4. 2-ply       13/10 13/7                   eq:-0.077 (-0.364)
      Player:   48.83% (G:10.65% B:0.42%)
      Opponent: 51.17% (G:13.96% B:0.73%)

    5. 1-ply       13/7 8/5                     eq:-0.117 (-0.404)
      Player:   47.62% (G:10.95% B:0.47%)
      Opponent: 52.38% (G:14.54% B:0.86%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]