confused by a double 3

[boop]

i'm sure I'l learn a lot from this question as I can't see the logic of leaving an extra blot when I will already be staring down a shotgun on the 4 point. I suppose 13/10(2) does leave all my outfield stripped but it gives an extra landing point for my escape and doesn't leave an extra hit.

I can't think of anything else to say ... any thoughts?

boop

[KDP]

the first 2 3's are easy, 6-3 (2), the question is now how to play the last 2  3's.  first what is your main objective?  i think at this point its to escape your last checker. you are already behind a 4 prime and your opponent stands a good change of extending that next roll so you have to move up 24-21.  (yes that puts you under the gun but he's not gonna escape unless you move him and now is the time to do it.)  so now you have moved 3 3's, 13-10 is your only reasonable move left.

[boop]

thanks, i see your logic ... my thought process was to try not to leave an extra hit by only slotting the 3 point and playing 13/10(2). On further analysis the only throws by my opponent which don't hit me and close his 4 point are  66 55 44 and 53. 53 being the only throw that could hit the blot on the 10 point - and that throw would be best played 12/15 12/17. So the 10 point is safe and I should continue to fill my home board and hope for some luck.

another point that I thought was that If I do get hit on the 4 point with a highly likely 5 point prime to follow, maybe having the 10 point open and hit quickly would be  good for the chance to make a back anchor.

so there are some conceptual thinking problems with me here as you, i think, didn't really examine the 10 point blot, it was just all that was left after the most important home building and escape preparation.

[NIHILIST]

Sorry, I don't see the logic at all, and my first two easy 3s are different form yours.

My play is 13-10 (2) , 24-21, and 6-3.

I see no urgency in making the 3 point as opponent has exited our home board. I agree with the urgency of escaping the blot in his home board.

Bob

[diane]

My play is 13-10 (2) , 24-21, and 6-3.

I see no urgency in making the 3 point as opponent has exited our home board. I agree with the urgency of escaping the blot in his home board.

Absolutely agree..if you were playing 5 x 3 ..the 3 point would be a nice to have...but since you aren't, why worry about that right now - leaving the shot for no reason is just silly.

[KDP]

XG roller ++ has 24 - 21, 13 - 10(2), 6 - 3 as only the 4th best move and a blunder.  the top move is 24 - 21, 6 - 3 (2), 13 -10.  i would suspect that a rollout would not change any of this.

[dorbel]

KDP has the right answer, but we need to know why it is the right answer. Red must move to the edge of the prime and take his chance there. Why? The answer is, "If not now, when?" He has to do this. White's answer to this is clearly going to be that he will attack that checker. Red will have to hope to hit back. If and when he hits back, he needs a four point board, not a three point board with a blot, so clearly 6/3(2) is mandatory. That only leaves 13/10 as a viable three. Why do we not mind leaving a blot on the 10pt? Because White isn't going to hit it, unless he rolls 3-3. This 1/36 chance of what is in any case a very strong roll for White is a price worth paying to make the three point and a bonus, it gives White a safe playable 6 next turn.

[diane]

White's answer to this is clearly going to be that he will attack that checker. Red will have to hope to hit back. If and when he hits back, he needs a four point board, not a three point board with a blot, so clearly 6/3(2) is mandatory.

Why do we not mind leaving a blot on the 10pt? Because White isn't going to hit it, unless he rolls 3-3. This 1/36 chance of what is in any case a very strong roll for White is a price worth paying to make the three point and a bonus, it gives White a safe playable 6 next turn.

Ok..not so silly - That makes it much clearer..the having to roll 3-3 to hit is not something I would have really thought about.  I cant help but feel that most would hit it with any 3 though.

[dorbel]

I cant help but feel that most would hit it with any 3 though.

In that case you will have induced them to make a very large error and given up their anchor, a positive gain.

[MichaelP7]

i'm sure I'l learn a lot from this question as I can't see the logic of leaving an extra blot when I will already be staring down a shotgun on the 4 point. I suppose 13/10(2) does leave all my outfield stripped but it gives an extra landing point for my escape and doesn't leave an extra hit.

I can't think of anything else to say ... any thoughts?

boop

An alternative way to figure out the best play for your 33s would be to think what would you do if the opponent doubles (correctly or wrong doesn't matter)  after you move.
While most "reasonable" moves lead to a take, if you play as per XGs suggestion leads you to the most definite take.

There is of course the option to just stay at 24 for a couple of rounds and see what happens, the problem is you will soon be running  out of moves unless you play 9/3(4) .Let aside that even if you get lucky and get out of there you would not have anywhere to land your pip other than on 13. If you don't get lucky your opponent would then play a simple game of blocking you in mobilize his 2 pips at 12 and either double you up leading you to a sure drop or just take his chances for a gammon.