Game 1, move 5: Herd 5-1

[diane]

Herd to move - and dont forget to stop me if anyone wants to think about cubing - Linus too 

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

Still nothing to justify leaving a direct shot anywhere. I'm looking at 8/2, giving just the 4-3 roll to hit, as better than 8/3 8/7 for two reasons - first, we then have a few useful aces (11, 21, 61) next time to point on White, numbers that wouldn't get us off the midpoint. Second, we may well remake the eight point which makes our bringing men round easier; after 8/3 8/7 it's probably gone for good.

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

I wouldn't argue too strongly against any of the choices here (except the horrid loose hit), but I would try 13/7. Several things suggest that it is worth leaving a shot. Blue owns the 18 and 13pts, a combination that can't be kept for much longer, so now might be the time to give up the mid. Blue also has the 5 and 4pts to fill and is running out of checkers to fill them with, so burying yet another checker looks wrong. 13/7 keeps all the remaining checkers in play and even if hit on the midpoint, Blue will get return shots after anything except 1-1. Finally, not very scientific I know, but with a tough and very positional play like this, I like to ask myself, "What would a great player do?". I can't imagine Mochy burying another checker here, I think he would put his checkers where he wants them.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Playing off the 18 leaves a double shot, so that's out.

Playing off the midpoint only leaves 11 shots and six of those leave a blot for us to shoot at.  And this keeps our structure intact.

Clearing the 8 is safe, but stacks the 3 point and abandons a valuable point.  OTOH, with the 2 made, the 8 is less valuable.

Clearing the 7 abandons a very valuable blocking point - Linus can then leap out with a six and take the lead in the race.


There's a strong argument for 13/8 - when this works we are left with a strong flexible position.  And since it works more than 70% of the time it seems like a good bet.

Then there's 8/2 - the 8 is not so valuable any more, we don't stack anything (although spares on the 2 and 3 are a bit ugly) and only leaves 34 to hit after which white will have a homeboard blot exposed.  They say "don't volunteer a shot in a holding game" and this seems like it's close enough to not leaving a shot to count.

8/2

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[KDP]

Spoiler

13-7 is my play.  i think this is the best move for a crappy roll.  if we're not hit it gives us the best chance to make another inner board pt and keeps a landing spot for the remaining outer checkers.

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

I actually rolled this one out on XG. By a very slim margin 13/7 beats 8/2 and these plays are clearly ahead of the rest. Basically, 8/2 has smaller rewards for a smaller risk. Although it takes away a checker for making the 4 or 5pts, after which Blue hopes to have a cube, it does cater for pointing on the ace, which, followed by a dance will usually also lead to a cube opportunity. All the other plays are safe for this roll but do nothing to open the door to an improvement next turn.

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[ah_clem]

Rollout

Spoiler

This one was close enough that a full rollout is warranted.

13/7 and 8/2 are  within the margin of error after 1296 games, with 8/2 coming out on top by only .005.





XGID=-aBC--BBB---cB--b-Bbbabb--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X        O     X |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
| X        O     X |   | O  O     O  O    |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
| O                |   |          X       |
| O           X  X |   | X        X  X    |
| O           X  X |   | X        X  X  O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 117  O: 117 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 51

    1. Rollout¹    8/2                          eq:-0.174
      Player:   45.60% (G:7.94% B:0.13%)
      Opponent: 54.40% (G:15.23% B:0.44%)
      Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.184..-0.163) - [73.6%]
      Duration: 10 minutes 50 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    13/7                         eq:-0.178 (-0.005)
      Player:   45.41% (G:7.97% B:0.24%)
      Opponent: 54.59% (G:15.75% B:0.46%)
      Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.188..-0.168) - [26.4%]
      Duration: 10 minutes 31 seconds

    3. XG Roller++ 13/8 3/2                     eq:-0.206 (-0.033)
      Player:   44.68% (G:7.40% B:0.18%)
      Opponent: 55.32% (G:15.00% B:0.31%)

    4. XG Roller++ 8/7 8/3                      eq:-0.217 (-0.044)
      Player:   44.74% (G:6.64% B:0.13%)
      Opponent: 55.26% (G:13.39% B:0.29%)

    5. XG Roller++ 7/6 7/2                      eq:-0.223 (-0.049)
      Player:   44.82% (G:7.08% B:0.10%)
      Opponent: 55.18% (G:14.38% B:0.31%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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