Game 2, Move 8: Herd Take or pass decision

[diane]

Here you go Herd, if you can imagine this with a cube on it - you can start deciding whether you want to take this cube or not...I will update the image when I get home.

[Julia_H]

Hmmm... on the surface we have quite a lot of duplication going - 1s and 2s to hit, 1s and 2s to pick up the blot on the five if required, 1s to cover it. But dig a bit deeper and there's a lot of other powerful numbers - 3 covers the five as well, 4 and 6 hit our back man. Given that Linus has a good anchor, we don't, and we have a stray home-board blot, if he does miss the outfield men then all-out attack seems a powerful strategy. With our position as exposed as it is, I'm leaning towards a pass.   

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

If he fails to hit we have plenty of winning chances but it just looks too gammonish to take.  I vote to drop and fight another day.
Steve

[close]

[dorbel]

Spoiler

Huge pass, just too many gammons. Any blitz where the blitzee has four blots is powerful. When the blitzer has the best anchor, all her doublets working and trails in a short match, then it is probably time to fold one's tent and slink into the night.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The takepoint at this score is lower than usual, somewhere around 20%.  But the price of gammons is quite elevated - about .75%  I'd say we still have a decent chance to win this game (~30%) but the gammon rate and the high price we pay when we lose one makes me say "pass".

[close]

[ah_clem]

XG++

Spoiler

We win about 30% of the time here, but lose gammons at a 38% rate, too many to swallow this cube. Taking here would be a massive blunder.




XGID=--ABCbDA----bA---bBdabbA--:0:0:-1:00:1:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:1 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| X           O  X |   | O  O  O  O  X    |
|             O  X |   | O     O  O       |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   | X                |
|                  |   | X     X          |
| O                |   | X  O  X  X       |
| O              X |   | X  O  X  X  X    |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count  X: 123  O: 125 X-O: 1-0/5
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances:   70.07% (G:38.13% B:2.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.93% (G:8.12% B:0.31%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.689, Double=+1.725

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.877 (-0.123)
       Double/Take:   +1.537 (+0.537)
       Double/Pass:   +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]