Game 3, move 2 : Herd 6-3

[diane]

Linus rolled 6-4, so I took the liberty of moving 13/7, 11/7...I really didnt think if I waited, it would be any different .

[KDP]

Spoiler

the 6 is easy we need to get that guy going so 21-15.  now for the 3, i like 13-10 as it duplicates his 3's plus it doesnt strip the 8 pt.

[close]

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

My first instinct was 13/4 - I'd rather wait until the White mid is stripped before we run out into no-mans-land. But given the other votes, I'm going to vote tactically for 21/15 8/5, because I think 13/10 is a mistake here. We're heading into a canonical holding-type game, with an even race, and generally that means giving as few shots as possible even at the expense of postponing board development. The 3s might be duped but what do we get in return for leaving three killer double-hits?

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I count 10 rolls that point on our head if we stay on the 21 point.  I don't think Linus will hit loose, but if he does, that's fine by me.

I count 17 rolls that hit if we run the checker.  So, most of the time we won't be hit if we run.

So, staying back on the 21 is safer for now.  But in the long term, I think we're better off getting it out of there; the more checkers he has in the zone the more dangerous it is.  However, running gives him a chance to bring more checkers into the zone with tempo, so it's not necessarily clear cut.  13/4 may well be best, but I'm going to vote to run.

And once we play 21/15, slotting the 5 seems most productive.  13/10 just leaves too many shots, and 6/3 slots the wrong point.

21/15 8/5

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Putting the runner in motion is definitely the right idea.  The top three plays all involve 21/15.

After that, it's too close to call between slotting the 5 and bringing one down from the midpoint.  In retrospect, the duplication of 3s  make what looks like a risky play perfectly sound.

13/4 is a whopper.



XGID=----B-DbC---cE---cbe-A----:0:0:1:63:1:1:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:1 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O  O |   | O     X          |
| X           O  O |   | O                |
| X           O    |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X                |
| O           X  O |   | X     X          |
| O           X  O |   | X     X          |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 142  O: 143 X-O: 1-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹    21/15 8/5                    eq:-0.030
      Player:   50.61% (G:4.48% B:0.20%)
      Opponent: 49.39% (G:6.40% B:0.21%)
      Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.042..-0.017) - [59.8%]
      Duration: 19 minutes 03 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    21/15 13/10                  eq:-0.033 (-0.003)
      Player:   50.49% (G:4.69% B:0.20%)
      Opponent: 49.51% (G:6.43% B:0.31%)
      Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.045..-0.020) - [35.3%]
      Duration: 20 minutes 08 seconds

    3. Rollout²    21/15 6/3                    eq:-0.046 (-0.017)
      Player:   50.38% (G:4.27% B:0.16%)
      Opponent: 49.62% (G:6.46% B:0.30%)
      Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.066..-0.026) - [5.0%]
      Duration: 8 minutes 24 seconds

    4. Rollout²    13/4                         eq:-0.120 (-0.090)
      Player:   48.65% (G:6.23% B:0.57%)
      Opponent: 51.35% (G:9.44% B:0.23%)
      Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.142..-0.098) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 8 minutes 20 seconds

    5. 3-ply       21/15 4/1                    eq:-0.155 (-0.126)
      Player:   47.60% (G:3.82% B:0.10%)
      Opponent: 52.40% (G:8.12% B:0.24%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

²  570 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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