Game 3, move 9 : Herd 5-1

[diane]

move?

[KDP]

Spoiler

because of his extra checkers on the 15, 17 and 18 pts linus can wait a bit longer before he has to run off the bar.  we dont have that luxury.  moving 13-8 means our next 6 leaves a blot.  i move 6-1 5-2

[close]

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

I agree, but it's close... White can hang around on our bar for probably three rolls before having to break his board; we'll be forced off the mid well before then.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

13/5 leaves 10 shakes where we will be forced to leave  a shot.   
6/1 6/3 leaves 2 shakes that force us to leave a shot.
6/1 5/2 leaves no rolls that force us to leave a shot.

Seems pretty clear.

[close]

[Zorba]

Spoiler

We want to get home, since we're ahead in the race. We'll have to move the third checker off the midpoint anyway, 5-3 is a good roll to do it. Waiting might be right if Linus was about to break up the barpoint, but that is quite unlikely. So not playing 13/5 just postpones the problem, and creates an inferior board with more wastage, and makes small doubles a lot less effective next turn. Also, next turn we may not roll 7 pips or more, and be forced to mess up our board even more.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

XG likes the shuffling plays better than the running play, although if you shuffle by playing both checkers off the six, the running play is better.




XGID=-ABBBCBb-----C-a-aabbbbb--:0:0:1:53:1:1:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:1 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X     O     O  O |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
| X                |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
| X                |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |    X             |
|                O |   | X  X  X  X  X    |
|                O |   | X  X  X  X  X  X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 85  O: 101 X-O: 1-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 53

    1. Rollout¹    6/1 5/2                      eq:+0.452
      Player:   64.73% (G:0.86% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 35.27% (G:1.45% B:0.03%)
      Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.444..+0.460) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 4 minutes 46 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    6/1 4/1                      eq:+0.431 (-0.020)
      Player:   63.97% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 36.03% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)
      Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.423..+0.440) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    13/5                         eq:+0.388 (-0.064)
      Player:   61.49% (G:1.37% B:0.04%)
      Opponent: 38.51% (G:1.58% B:0.04%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.382..+0.395) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 5 minutes 01 second

    4. Rollout¹    6/3 6/1                      eq:+0.384 (-0.068)
      Player:   62.38% (G:1.04% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 37.62% (G:1.93% B:0.04%)
      Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.376..+0.392) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 2 minutes 58 seconds

    5. 1-ply       13/8 5/2                     eq:-0.072 (-0.524)
      Player:   49.24% (G:2.39% B:0.03%)
      Opponent: 50.76% (G:5.83% B:0.07%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]