Game 3, move 10 : Herd 5-2

[diane]

move?

[KDP]

Spoiler

13-6  anything else i think would be a blunder

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Playing off the midpoint means 10 shakes that force us to leave a shot. 6/1 5/3 leaves only 2 shakes.

Yes, we'll have to run off the midpoint eventually, but every time we delay it by a sequence gives us another chance to roll doubles and escape cleanly.

This is probably closer than the last decision, but i think shuffling is better than running.

6/1 5/3

[close]

[stog]

exactly... well described 'our clem'

may this influence others in the Herd to change their vote... which you can, up to the vote closing,  by choosing 'remove vote' and then voting again with the better option...

[Zorba]

Spoiler

I think 13/6 is pretty clear here. The race just got closer, we cannot afford to waste pips with an ugly 6/1 move, besides 5-2 is a perfect roll to get the third checker safely home, the closed board also comes in very handy in case we end up hitting a shot anytime later. The board after playing inside is a hopeless mess, which may even afford Linus to split his backcheckers and get double shots at us later on. Also take a look at how 1-1, 2-2 and most of all, 5-1 would play after either move.

[close]

[stog]

thx z

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

I'm with the 13/6s as well. If we carry on stacking up then we're both squandering our lead in the race and making it much less effective if Linus blinks first - after 6/1 5/3 our board has much less value and also we start finding numbers which hit, but don't pick up the home table blot. After 13/7 there's no way White is running without a big double, so a lot of his shakes pile up men behind the gap in his board.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

While shuffling was correct last turn, here it's best to run.  In hindsight, shuffling really tears up the board, so that's probably a big factor in the difference.




XGID=-BCBBBAb-----C---aabbabbb-:0:0:1:52:1:1:0:5:3

X:Herd   O:Linus
Score is X:1 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O  O |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
| X                |   | O  O     O  O  O |
| X                |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |             X    |
|                O |   |    X  X  X  X  X |
|                O |   | X  X  X  X  X  X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 77  O: 89 X-O: 1-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 52

    1. Rollout¹    13/6                         eq:+0.400
      Player:   62.74% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 37.26% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
      Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.392..+0.407) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    6/1 5/3                      eq:+0.324 (-0.076)
      Player:   61.02% (G:0.72% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 38.98% (G:2.32% B:0.10%)
      Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.315..+0.334) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 2 minutes 52 seconds

    3. 2-ply       6/1 4/2                      eq:+0.179 (-0.221)
      Player:   57.14% (G:0.57% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 42.86% (G:2.69% B:0.01%)

    4. 2-ply       6/1 3/1                      eq:+0.140 (-0.260)
      Player:   55.84% (G:0.58% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 44.16% (G:2.76% B:0.01%)

    5. 1-ply       13/8 6/4                     eq:-0.001 (-0.401)
      Player:   51.16% (G:2.49% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 48.84% (G:5.00% B:0.02%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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