Game 4, move 4 : Herd 4-2

[diane]

move?

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I like keeping a spare on the 8 with 6/4 6/2.  If we strip the 8 then a roll of 62 forces us to abandon it.

Yeah, making the 4 point is obvious, and may be best, but I'll vote for 6/4 6/2.  We'll make the four point before long, so no real need to make it right now.

[close]

[KDP]

Spoiler

i make the 4

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

A harder decision this time with two viable candidate plays that are close enough to warrant a full rollout.  

6/4 6/2 is XG's choice, but the Herd's play is within the margin of error after a full 1296 rollout.



XGID=--A--bE-C---dF---abcba----:0:0:1:42:3:1:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O  O |   | O  O  O          |
| X              O |   | O  O             |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   |                  |
| 6                |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   | X                |
| O                |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X  O             |
| O           X    |   | X  O        X    |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 134  O: 146 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 42

   1. Rollout¹    6/4 6/2                      eq:+0.385
     Player:   64.61% (G:2.87% B:0.04%)
     Opponent: 35.39% (G:2.12% B:0.11%)
     Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.376..+0.395) - [84.2%]
     Duration: 17 minutes 30 seconds

   2. Rollout¹    8/4 6/4                      eq:+0.378 (-0.007)
     Player:   64.36% (G:2.45% B:0.05%)
     Opponent: 35.64% (G:1.85% B:0.02%)
     Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.369..+0.388) - [15.8%]
     Duration: 18 minutes 19 seconds

   3. XG Roller++ 8/2                          eq:+0.325 (-0.060)
     Player:   62.82% (G:2.64% B:0.04%)
     Opponent: 37.18% (G:2.56% B:0.05%)

   4. 2-ply       13/7                         eq:+0.063 (-0.322)
     Player:   57.06% (G:3.67% B:0.12%)
     Opponent: 42.94% (G:7.25% B:0.20%)

   5. 1-ply       13/9 6/4                     eq:+0.054 (-0.331)
     Player:   56.36% (G:3.76% B:0.07%)
     Opponent: 43.64% (G:6.36% B:0.30%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]