Game 5, move 2 : Herd 1-1

[diane]

move?

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Make the bar point.  That's obvious.  Then slot the back of the mini-prime with 11/9.  I don't see any  value to moving up the runner - all you do is reduce the number of escaping rolls and make it more vulnerable to attack.  If we could reach the 21 where the runner sees daylight it might be worth stepping up, but the 22 is not worth moving to.

11/9 8/7(2)

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Herd's play comes out on top again.   24/22 8/7(2)   is a .05 error costing just under 1% MWC.



XGID=-----bE-D--AcD--bb-db---A-:0:0:1:11:4:1:1:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X        O  O    |   | O  O           X |
| X        O  O    |   | O  O             |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   | X                |
|             X    |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X  O             |
| O  X        X    |   | X  O             |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 149  O: 147 X-O: 4-1/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 11

   1. Rollout¹    11/9 8/7(2)                  eq:-0.492
     Player:   35.39% (G:6.82% B:0.45%)
     Opponent: 64.61% (G:19.47% B:0.79%)
     Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.498..-0.487) - [100.0%]
     Duration: 15 minutes 35 seconds

   2. Rollout¹    24/23 11/10 8/7(2)           eq:-0.514 (-0.022)
     Player:   35.09% (G:7.19% B:0.64%)
     Opponent: 64.91% (G:21.04% B:0.83%)
     Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.520..-0.509) - [0.0%]
     Duration: 15 minutes 05 seconds

   3. Rollout¹    11/7                         eq:-0.531 (-0.038)
     Player:   34.49% (G:6.84% B:0.58%)
     Opponent: 65.51% (G:21.45% B:0.80%)
     Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.536..-0.526) - [0.0%]
     Duration: 14 minutes 47 seconds

   4. Rollout¹    24/23 11/8                   eq:-0.536 (-0.044)
     Player:   35.21% (G:7.04% B:0.62%)
     Opponent: 64.79% (G:23.43% B:0.63%)
     Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.542..-0.531) - [0.0%]
     Duration: 14 minutes 15 seconds

   5. Rollout¹    24/22 8/7(2)                 eq:-0.541 (-0.049)
     Player:   34.44% (G:6.42% B:0.51%)
     Opponent: 65.56% (G:22.42% B:0.57%)
     Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.547..-0.536) - [0.0%]
     Duration: 15 minutes 54 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]