Game 5, move 11 : Herd 4-4

[diane]

move?

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

Horrible choice. 15/7 is probably necessary, then 8/4(2) is a roll that basically gives up. Barring a 4-4, White steps men into the outfield, and should we be lucky enough to get something to hop past the prime we'll be put straight back again. 6/2(2) accepts quite a bit more danger with a bit more chance of White rolling something that self-destructs the prime. But the more I think about it, the more it seems right just to avoid being gammoned. At 1-away 5-away things might be different.

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[diane]

Yes, this one is tough - you can tell when the vote is that divided. Does anyone else wish to offer a thought process, to see if we reach more of a consensus? I will extend the voting until I get home tonight, to allow some discussion.

[ah_clem]

Backgammon is a game of chance, so I just randomly threw a dart at the dartboard and 15/7,  6/2(2) was the winner.  Do I need a spoiler for this?

[KDP]

Spoiler

here is my 2 cents worth.  we DO NOT want to get hit so its imperative we move the blot on the 15 to safety.  15-7.  so that takes care of 2 of the 4's, now we have 2 more to play 9-5 is blocked 8-4  adds more checkers to the stack we already have on the 4, we really don't want/need more.  7-3 is out as it would leave a blot and we just said we don't want to leave blots so pretty much by default it's 6-2 (2) for the last half of our move.

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

Seems to be about 15/7 with either 8/4(2) or 6/2(2). Since our best chance to win this thing is to get lucky and escape our backchecker, then win the race, giving up the sixpoint doesn't look good to me. It often leads to leaving shots later on with Linus camped on our fivepoint. So I like 8/4(2), we don't need a pretty board here, we need to avoid having more checkers sent back (gammon losses) and be ready for when we get lucky (sixpoint as a very important landing spot). As for the chances that Linus will crack by keeping the blocking eightpoint, it doesn't happen very often and even if it does, it doesn't always make our escape that much easier and we'll have a very hard time benefiting from it without our sixpoint.

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[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

This was an ugly roll, and rather difficult choice. The right idea is to avoid leaving a shot, and avoid creating difficulties in the bear-in by stacking the 4 point.  we'll need to clear the six eventually, and it's not really blocking anything right now, so switch to the deuce and safety the outfield runner.

Post-hoc analysis is easy.  (c:




XGID=-B--CdBBBB-----A-bbbcb-A--:0:0:1:44:4:1:1:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|       X     O  O |   | O  O  O     X    |
|             O  O |   | O  O  O          |
|                  |   |    O             |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |    O             |
|                  |   |    O  X          |
|          X  X  X |   | X  O  X        X |
|          X  X  X |   | X  O  X        X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 112  O: 145 X-O: 4-1/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 44

    1. XG Roller++ 15/7 6/2(2)                  eq:-0.474
      Player:   31.89% (G:9.32% B:0.10%)
      Opponent: 68.11% (G:10.87% B:0.36%)

    2. XG Roller++ 15/7 8/4(2)                  eq:-0.529 (-0.055)
      Player:   28.73% (G:8.09% B:0.08%)
      Opponent: 71.27% (G:10.10% B:0.37%)

    3. XG Roller++ 15/3 7/3                     eq:-0.571 (-0.097)
      Player:   29.14% (G:7.89% B:0.13%)
      Opponent: 70.86% (G:14.94% B:0.58%)

    4. XG Roller++ 7/3(2) 6/2(2)                eq:-0.589 (-0.115)
      Player:   28.26% (G:8.77% B:0.09%)
      Opponent: 71.74% (G:15.02% B:0.58%)

    5. 3-ply       8/4(2) 7/3(2)                eq:-0.613 (-0.140)
      Player:   26.26% (G:7.12% B:0.12%)
      Opponent: 73.74% (G:13.50% B:0.46%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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