Game 5, move 15 : Herd 6-3

[diane]

A couple of choices here..how brave do we feel?

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

Quick count up of shots - if we play to the bar point with either hit, we leave 31, 32, 34, 51, 52, 61, 62 - 14 shots. After 16/10* 4/1, we leave 34, 35, 54, 55, 64, 65 - 11 shots. After 16/10* 9/6*, we leave just any single 6, and 33 - 12 shots. So really going for it with the double hit actually leaves no more immediate danger than the alternatives. Also in its favour, after any miss we have three men aiming to remake the 6 point (if only we hadn't given it up!), which will make the bear-in much easier; otherwise we will probably have time to find somewhere safe for the remaining blots, and failing that if we do end up with multiple men back White isn't yet in a position to close us out before we make an anchor and button down the hatches for a single loss.

[close]

[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

The main thing here appears to be leaving the fewest shots.  The double hit looks risky, but since it  leaves fewer shots by making  Linus use both dice to get off the bar, it's actually safest.  And best according to XGR++.



XGID=-DB-Dba-BBa--a--Abbbbb----:0:0:1:63:4:1:1:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O        X  O  O |   | O  O  O          |
|             O  O |   | O  O  O          |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |       X        X |
|                  |   |       X        X |
|          X  X    |   |    O  X     X  X |
|       O  X  X    |   | O  O  X     X  X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 74  O: 146 X-O: 4-1/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 63

    1. XG Roller++ 16/10* 9/6*                  eq:-0.048
      Player:   53.49% (G:41.70% B:0.22%)
      Opponent: 46.51% (G:11.48% B:0.68%)

    2. XG Roller++ 16/10* 10/7                  eq:-0.166 (-0.117)
      Player:   47.21% (G:27.43% B:0.10%)
      Opponent: 52.79% (G:10.68% B:0.46%)

    3. XG Roller++ 16/13* 13/7                  eq:-0.171 (-0.123)
      Player:   46.93% (G:28.58% B:0.12%)
      Opponent: 53.07% (G:10.69% B:0.46%)

    4. 2-ply       16/10* 4/1                   eq:-0.211 (-0.162)
      Player:   46.04% (G:27.91% B:0.11%)
      Opponent: 53.96% (G:12.77% B:0.48%)

    5. 2-ply       16/13* 8/2                   eq:-0.253 (-0.205)
      Player:   43.31% (G:27.22% B:0.13%)
      Opponent: 56.69% (G:11.61% B:0.88%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]