Game 5, move 32 : Herd 6-5

[diane]

some moves were obvious..

30: Herd 5-2, 22/15
31: Linus 5-1, 7/6, 7/2...Herd 5-1, 15/12
32: Linus 5-1, 5/off, 2/1

And now the herd has a choice..

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

No future in hanging back with the two back chequers while Linus bears off, nor with one (which might get hit and trapped. Even if we get a lucky shot, we have no board and he'd have returns. Run like hell and hope for the best! 22-16, 22-17

[close]

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

We can't hope to win by staying - by the time a shot does come along Linus will have enough men off to be a good favourite even if hit, as with our higher anchor he can bear off more aggressively than if we were further back, and we have nothing to contain a hit man with. If we run then we still have chances of a big double to help us along while Linus gets occasional misses from gaps low in his board; and of course we're safe from gammons.

[close]

[KDP]

Spoiler

run both and hope for the best

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Even if we manage to get a shot, we can't contain squat.  Time to get out of Dodge and run off the gammon.  3a PC is not a bad score to be at (68% MWC) - much better than 2a PC (51% MWC).

[close]

[diane]

ok..that became a race / run situation - so I played it out..file attached.

[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

Running doesn't win as many games as some other choices (4.7% vs 6.3%) but it loses a lot fewer gammons (1% vs 20%).  At this score, the difference between losing a single point vs losing a gammon is 68% MWC vs 51% MWC, so saving the gammon is right by a mile.




XGID=-JB---------A------ddcBba-:0:0:1:65:4:1:1:5:3

X:Herd   O:Linus
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|                  |   | O  O  O  X  O  O |
|                  |   | O  O  O  X  O    |
|                  |   | O  O  O          |
|                  |   | O  O             |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |               10 |
|                  |   |                X |
|                  |   |                X |
|                  |   |             X  X |
| X                |   |             X  X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 70  O: 61 X-O: 4-1/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 65

    1. XG Roller++ 22/17 22/16                  eq:-0.916
      Player:   4.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 95.31% (G:0.97% B:0.00%)

    2. XG Roller++ 12/1                         eq:-0.995 (-0.079)
      Player:   3.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 96.03% (G:7.26% B:0.09%)

    3. XG Roller++ 22/11                        eq:-1.024 (-0.108)
      Player:   5.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 94.14% (G:13.76% B:0.27%)

    4. XG Roller++ 22/16 12/7                   eq:-1.039 (-0.123)
      Player:   6.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 93.82% (G:15.87% B:0.30%)

    5. XG Roller++ 22/17 12/6                   eq:-1.079 (-0.163)
      Player:   6.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 93.74% (G:19.90% B:0.42%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]