Game 6, move 6 : Herd 6-2

[diane]

move?

[KDP]

Spoiler

no need to get cute or try something fancy 6-2 allows us to escape our back checker and links us up with the straggler on the 16.  24-16.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Making the 16 is the "obvious" play, but my take is that if we make that point now, we'll just have to clear it later when his board is stronger.  With his board being in the state that it is and ours being so strong I think we can play a bit more boldly.  I like 16/10 to aim a builder at the bar point and to clear the 16.  Then move the runner up to prepare to escape.  This keeps pressure on the blot on his 5 point.

It is quasi-DMP, so there's little value in sending a fourth checker back.  And Linus shouldn't be reticent to hit loose.  But the vast difference in board strength means any exchange of hits should go in our favor.

Making the 16 may well be best in the rollout, but my concern is that if we make it now we'll sit on it for long enough to be looking at a strong board when we have to clear it.  I'd just as soon not make it now.

24/22, 16/10

[close]

[ah_clem]

ROLLOUT

Spoiler

XGID=-cBBBBB-----bC--Ad-ea---A-:1:1:1:62:4:2:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X        X  O    |   | O  O           X |
| X           O    |   | O                |
| X           O    |   | O                |
|             O    |   | O                |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                O | +---+
| O                |   | X  X  X  X  X  O | | 2 |
| O                |   | X  X  X  X  X  O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 119  O: 165 X-O: 4-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹    24/16                        eq:+0.523
      Player:   78.08% (G:41.34% B:16.22%)
      Opponent: 21.92% (G:1.95% B:0.22%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.517..+0.528) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 11 minutes 35 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    24/22 16/10                  eq:+0.487 (-0.036)
      Player:   76.46% (G:46.58% B:21.78%)
      Opponent: 23.54% (G:2.11% B:0.10%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.481..+0.493) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 12 minutes 07 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]

[diane]

Did you roll out 16/10, 13/11? If not do that....gnu as that has the best move by a smidge.

[ah_clem]

Did you roll out 16/10, 13/11? If not do that....gnu as that has the best move by a smidge.

XG doesn't care for it so much.


XGID=-cBBBBB-----bC--Ad-ea---A-:1:1:1:62:4:2:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X        X  O    |   | O  O           X |
| X           O    |   | O                |
| X           O    |   | O                |
|             O    |   | O                |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                O | +---+
| O                |   | X  X  X  X  X  O | | 2 |
| O                |   | X  X  X  X  X  O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 119  O: 165 X-O: 4-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62
   
    1. Rollout¹    24/16                        eq:+0.523
      Player:   78.08% (G:41.34% B:16.22%)
      Opponent: 21.92% (G:1.95% B:0.22%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.517..+0.528) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 11 minutes 35 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    24/22 16/10                  eq:+0.487 (-0.036)
      Player:   76.46% (G:46.58% B:21.78%)
      Opponent: 23.54% (G:2.11% B:0.10%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.481..+0.493) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 12 minutes 07 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    16/10 13/11                  eq:+0.472 (-0.051)
      Player:   75.80% (G:49.90% B:25.31%)
      Opponent: 24.20% (G:2.18% B:0.16%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.466..+0.479) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 13 minutes 01 second


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2