Game 1, move 0 : Herd 6-4

[diane]

Welcome Roderick, to Fibsforum match 16...best of luck and enjoy

How would the herd like to open?

[KDP]

Spoiler

there probably isnt a whole lot of difference between the top 3 moves i think it comes down to style differences.  i would play 24-18 13-9 but if my doubles partner wanted to make the 2 pt i wouldnt put up too much of a fight.  if im playing a stronger opponent i would make the 2 against a weaker opponent i play 18 9.  i think the running play is the weakest of the 3.

[close]

[Roderick]

Hi all!  Thanks!  And gl, too.

I believe that at GS running all the way with an opening 6-4 is best.

[stog]

be wary Herd; this man is a true 'hustler!  

Spoiler

i voted for the 2 point forever wary of an early lucky blitz -- although i was always taught to take chances early!

[close]

[ah_clem]

voting is over, and I missed it.  No spoiler due to voting being over.

Opening rolls have been extensively rolled out by the computers.  64 is no exception.  Making the deuce comes out on top for money play, but by the narrowest margin.  Basically, we have these stats



Play     win %  gammon win   gammon loss
Point    49.8     15.8            14.2
Run      50.6     11.8            12.9
Split    50.3     13.6            13.7


Running wins the most games, so it's best at DMP.  It also loses the fewest gammons, so it's best at GS.  For money, the additional gammon wins from the pointing play (4%) outweigh the additional losses (.8%).  At 5a5a where gammons are even more valuable than fro money, pointing is the way to go.  That said, all three are playable.

And it should be emphasized that like slotting an opening of 21, you'll only gain the benefits of the additional gammons if you can play aggressively to make those gammons happen (hat tip to Tim Chow here) so if you don't have an aggressive style it's likely better to split or run.
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see http://www.bgonline.org/firstmove/46.html

[ah_clem]

Oh, and it's part of XG's opening book, so I don't have to waste cycles rolling it out myself.  It doesn't get much closer than this, folks.

ROLLOUT



XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:5:10


    1. Book¹       8/2 6/2                      eq:+0.013
      Player:   49.79% (G:16.18% B:1.03%)
      Opponent: 50.21% (G:14.67% B:0.75%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.010..+0.015) - [66.9%]

    2. Book¹       24/18 13/9                   eq:+0.012 (-0.001)
      Player:   50.33% (G:13.86% B:0.75%)
      Opponent: 49.67% (G:13.89% B:0.68%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.010..+0.014) - [33.1%]

    3. Book²       24/14                        eq:+0.004 (-0.009)
      Player:   50.58% (G:12.47% B:0.67%)
      Opponent: 49.42% (G:13.71% B:0.56%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (0.000..+0.008) - [0.0%]

    4. Book³       24/20 13/7                   eq:-0.057 (-0.070)
      Player:   48.44% (G:13.83% B:0.75%)
      Opponent: 51.56% (G:14.22% B:0.73%)
      Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.064..-0.050) - [0.0%]

    5. Book4       24/20 24/18                  eq:-0.078 (-0.091)
      Player:   48.73% (G:11.23% B:0.49%)
      Opponent: 51.27% (G:14.22% B:0.49%)


¹Generated by Miran Tuhtan on 11/24/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
  62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Dice Seed: 1
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

²Generated by Miran Tuhtan on 11/24/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
  15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Dice Seed: 1
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
  10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Dice Seed: 38613390
  Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

4Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 5/21/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
  Analyzed in XG Roller++


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2