Game 2, move 2 : Herd 5-2

[diane]

Move?

[Roderick]

I like running 23/16 best.  Surprised that that didn't get even 1 out of 9 votes.

Up and down (23/21) is reasonable but it feels inflexible - you strip the midpoint.  However a 4th checker on the 8 is often valuable and is so in this position.  You can get pointed on on the 4 and your opponent will aggressively attack.

As far as 23/16:  if you get missed you're in good shape.  But the hits with fewer return hits come more frequently.

23/18, 13/11 is wrong by quite a bit.  It leaves a tremendous number of hits, several of which point and the spare on the 11 can only be used to make the 5 point because the midpoint is stripped.

[Zorba]

I thought the running move 23/16 would be interesting if we had more of a racing advantage. Here it is effectively only 1 pip, so basically an equal race. So even if the double shot is missed, it's not a very clear advantage. It would be nice to escape one backchecker though, with Roderick's two still pinned down on our acepoint; it probably leads to a timing advantage.

[Roderick]

ROLLOUT.....

The XG+ results had them as 0.001 different.

A 1296 XG rollout put 23/16 ahead by 0.007 (+0.0213) over 23/21, 13/8 (+0.206) with an 81% chance of 23/16 being best.  I'm not going to roll it out until statistical certainty.  The plays are close but the jump should be something that everyone at least considers in a position like this.